ANALYSIS:TWO TELEVISION confrontations sealed the fate of hot favourites in the presidential elections of 1990 and 2011. Last week's fatal undermining of Seán Gallagher's ambitions by Sinn Féin's Martin McGuinness has already become part of political folklore, but a similar fate befell another contender 21 years ago.
This reporter was covering the ill-fated campaign of Fine Gael candidate Austin Currie. The campaign team stopped off in Cashel, Co Tipperary, on October 22nd, where a hotel room had been set aside for everyone to watch the RTÉ programme Questions and Answers.
Fianna Fáil candidate Brian Lenihan snr, considered a shoo-in for Áras an Uachtaráin at that stage, was a member of the panel, along with former Fine Gael taoiseach Dr Garret FitzGerald.
Eight years earlier, a government led by Dr FitzGerald lost a critical Dáil vote and a general election was expected in short order. However, there were persistent reports Lenihan had phoned then-president Patrick Hillery urging him to refuse a dissolution of the Dáil so Fianna Fáil leader Charles Haughey could be nominated as taoiseach.
Asked from the TV audience by a Fine Gael activist if he had made such calls, Lenihan replied: “No, I didn’t at all. Nothing like that ever happened.” But five months earlier, he had told UCD postgrad student Jim Duffy in a taped interview that he had indeed called Dr Hillery.
The tape was made available to this newspaper and subsequently entered the public domain. Then, disastrously, Lenihan told RTÉ News, looking straight to camera, that “on mature recollection” he had not phoned Hillery and his account to Duffy had been wrong.
A poll within days of the TV debacle showed support for Lenihan falling from 51 per cent to 31 per cent, while Robinson soared 19 points to 52 per cent.
Fianna Fáil’s coalition partner, the PDs, threatened to walk out and, on October 31st, Lenihan was sacked as tánaiste and minister for defence by taoiseach Charles Haughey.
On election day, November 7th, Lenihan was beaten by Mary Robinson with transfers from Austin Currie. The Fine Gael "ambush" on Questions and Answershad worked brilliantly.
Twenty-one years later, a similar ambush worked equally well on another RTÉ programme, The Frontline. But this time the work was done, not by Fine Gael but by Sinn Féin.
The timeframe for Gallagher's political destruction was much shorter than Lenihan's. The earlier saga stretched over more than two weeks whereas the fallout from The Frontlinetook effect in three days.
Lenihan’s mishandling of the situation may have been due in part to his poor state of health at the time. Gallagher’s demise was more likely due to over-confidence arising from his commanding lead in the polls. Unlike Lenihan, he did not deny the charge laid by McGuinness but gave contradictory responses, which were compounded by poor media performances the next day.
Just as Lenihan’s “mature recollection” phrase has entered the annals, so too has Gallagher’s admission that Hugh Morgan might have given “an envelope” containing a €5,000 cheque.
He conceded the possibility after host Pat Kenny read out a Tweet purporting to come from Sinn Féin, which said Mr Morgan would be giving a press conference. The message later turned out to be fake. Whatever problems Lenihan had all those years ago, at least he did not have to contend with Twitter.com.
