CABINET:THROUGHOUT YESTERDAY, Fianna Fáil TDs gathered in eager huddles in Leinster House in search of information in a place where only rumour and half-truths abounded.
Promoted by Albert Reynolds after he had sacked eight ministers, Brian Cowen is deemed unlikely to attempt anything similar when he comes to choosing his Cabinet next month.
Reynolds' Night of the Long Knives, and the bitterness it created within Fianna Fáil's ranks, contributed heavily to Reynolds' own demise in 1994, when he landed in trouble over the Fr Brendan Smyth affair.
Cowen had a veto over the selection of the current Cabinet last year, so there is no one there who is completely unacceptable to him, even if he would not be overly fond of a few of them.
But he has to make some changes. So far, most attention has gone on who will succeed him as Tánaiste, but the choice for the Department of Finance is, by far, more important.
Given that he holds the post now, it is to be assumed that he will want to maintain close hands on the tiller even from the remove of the Taoiseach's office in Government Buildings.
From Minister for Foreign Affairs Dermot Ahern's speedy offer of support, it is clear that the Louthman fancies his chances, though he is not popular with colleagues, and never has been.
However, popularity is rarely a talent needed in finance, and it may be even less needed in months to come, though the two men are as different as chalk and cheese and have never been particularly close.
Equally, Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Employment Micheál Martin will have aspirations for higher office, and relations between him and Cowen have improved over the last year or so.
Cowen had previously seen him as an opponent, and taken a dim view of Martin's handling of crises during his time in the health portfolio.
Since then, however, Martin's confidence levels have increased and he has been particularly forceful at Cabinet meetings since September, much to the surprise of Cowen, sources have said.
However, Martin does not have a great reputation for being a man who says no, or enjoys doing so, and the Merrion Street post is likely to be a tough one in coming years. Cowen is not overly gifted with possible successors in finance: Martin may be too soft; Brian Lenihan has only seven months behind him in a full Cabinet post, while Mary Hanafin's star has fallen in recent months in education and science.
Noel Dempsey's decision, meanwhile, to delay joining the posse of Ministers out in support of Cowen yesterday can only be interpreted as an effort to increase his chances of promotion.
It was a risky tactic, and one that could end up making the Minister for Transport look very foolish, and few of his colleagues yesterday could see the point.
Though predictions about Cabinet reshuffles are among the most futile of activities, it is reasonable to assume that one of the existing Cabinet will go on May 7th.
The favourite, according to some of his own colleagues yesterday, was one of the longest survivors in politics over the last 30 years, Séamus Brennan, the Minister for Arts, Sport and Tourism. He survived last year's team-change by a whisker, although he was told then by Taoiseach Bertie Ahern that he would not be there after the Government had reached its half-term.
But it has not done so yet. Last night, Brennan's people were quick to spot the danger of such idle chatter and went out to promote their man's talents. He would be perfect for Tánaiste, they said - the party's biggest vote-getter in Dublin, and an elder statesman of the party, popular with the grassroots.
For now, the prediction must be that Cowen will make some changes now, but not many; and leave a further round of change until after the local and European elections.
Then, he will have patronage to ease the departure of another because Ireland will need a new European commissioner to replace Charlie McCreevy, who is not even looking for a second term.
"Cowen had a veto over Cabinet selection last year, so there is no one there who is unacceptable to him
