A new balance of forces emerged last night in the European Parliament with the centre-right European People's Party (EPP) - of which Fine Gael is a member - taking over as the Parliament's largest, and the significant strengthening of the Liberals (ELDR) led by Mr Pat Cox MEP.
The result - based on exit polls - will be seen as a blow to the Socialists who lead or are part of 13 of the Union's 15 governments. But the size of moderate electoral swings to the right has been exaggerated somewhat by changes in the British voting system, giving the Tories up to 30 seats, double their present share, and extra seats to the Liberals.
The displacement of the Socialists for the first time in 20 years marks "a historic shift," said Mr Bob Fitzhenry, spokesman for the EPP. The outgoing President of the Parliament, Mr Jose Maria Gil Robles, said it showed the public across Europe did not want one party to dominate government.
According to senior Parliament sources, the imminent defection of France's Gaullists to the EPP is likely to bring the latter to more than 215 seats in the new Parliament, up from 201. The Socialists are likely to plummet from 214 to 185 seats.
The consolidation of the French right in the EPP, through the defection of the 16 members of the Gaullist RPR from the 34-strong Union for Europe, is a bitter blow to Fianna Fail, which currently shares the leadership of the group.
Currently only two groups are clamouring to join the UFE - the ex-fascists of Italy's Alleanza Nacionale and the hard-right supporters of Mr Joerg Haider's Freedom Party in Austria.
The result could be to force Fianna Fail into realignment. Their choices are limited - there is really only Pat Cox's Liberals or Fine Gael's EPP.
Some 298 million Europeans were eligible to participate in the vote to choose a new 626-seat assembly, which had its powers enhanced when the Treaty of Amsterdam entered into force on May 1st.
But turnout was uniformly poor, below 50 per cent overall for the first time.
Early figures in Germany saw the governing SPD threatened with the loss of seven out of 40 seats and the Greens likely to lose five out of 12. Parliament sources were predicting the reinvigorated German Christian Democrats would also take the leadership of the EPP group for their member, Mr Elmer Brok.
Exit polls in Portugal, Spain, the Netherlands and Greece also predicted smaller losses for the Socialists. An exit poll in Denmark shows a gain for the Liberal opposition and for the euro-sceptical June Movement, making it likely that the latter's Howth-based actor candidate, Jens Okking, will be elected.
In France provisional results put Socialists at the low end of recent scores, little comfort for the government. The Greens, led in the European Parliament list by Danny Cohn Bendit, did well, and the far-left is likely to be represented for the first time.
The probable RPR vote of 12 per cent will reflect poorly on President Chirac. The far-right polled about 12 per cent, with Mr Jean Marie Le Pen trouncing his rival, Mr Bruno Megret.
In Stockholm a very poor result for the Government saw the SDP, unable to recover ground lost last year, down to only 25 per cent. There were gains for the Socialist Left and the colourful leader of the Liberals, one-time cleaner Ms Marit Paulsen, is set to treble her representation to three or four.
Italy's result was most remarkable for the strong performance of the Radical list of the outgoing Commissioner for Humanitarian Aid, Ms Emma Bonino. She notched up a strong 10 per cent, just more than the list of the incoming President of the Commission, Mr Romano Prodi.
In Britain the Tories were set to take up to 30 seats, with some pundits last night predicting seats for the UK Independence Party, which opposes EU membership.
Despite the changes the Parliament will still effectively be ruled by a consensus of the EPP and Socialists, although the strengthening of small groups may make it less easily controllable.
