CAO points appear set to remain at their current levels for the next five years, as student numbers at second level change only marginally. New Department of Education statistics indicate that about 330,000 students will be at second level until 2011.
After this numbers will rise sharply, reaching 400,000 by 2020. The figures are good news for current secondary students and those taking the Leaving Cert, at least until 2011.
Last year commentators reported the traditional CAO points race had ended for most students as points tumbled across a huge range of disciplines.
While points remain at high levels for disciplines such as medicine and dentistry, they have fallen dramatically for most courses. More than 75 per cent of students now secure one of their top three CAO choices.
The levelling off in student numbers is a result of the decline in births between the late 1980s and the late 1990s. Birth rates began to increase and immigration became a key factor from about 1997 onwards.
Last night the Teachers' Union of Ireland (TUI) said the new figures presented an opportunity - for a five-year period - to attract into third level students from a wide variety of backgrounds. The union is urging that Post Leaving Certificate colleges be given appropriate structures to help achieve this aim. There are 331,000 students in the second-level system. The department's forecast of 400,000 students by 2020 is broadly in line with recent figures published by the Central Statistics Office and the OECD.
TUI president Tim O'Meara said: "Our changing demographics indicate that there will be a sharp increase in the number of 'traditional' students by 2020. A golden opportunity therefore exists before then to provide routes to non-traditional students in furthering their education."
The number of students sitting the Leaving Cert is at its lowest in a generation. In 1996, more than 66,000 students sat the exam but last summer this was down to just over 55,000.
