Sandra O'Connellasks travel professionals to look ahead to the challenges facing the industry this year
Tony Collins
Managing director, Topflight
Our advance bookings for next year are down by about 25 per cent, as people are holding off on their holiday-making decisions. In itself that's no bad thing, as long as they make the decision.
Ski and winter holidays for this season are holding up well. This is a shorter ski season than last year's because Easter comes later in 2009. As a result, capacity is down around 20 per cent and bookings are down in line with that.
People will look for security in a way they didn't before. With some airlines having gone bust recently there is a realisation that airlines aren't bonded.
Holidaymakers will gravitate towards strong brands, from which we stand to benefit, and away from seat-only or independently-booked accommodation arrangements.
The fuel surcharge will also become a thing of the past by next year.
Alan Sparling
District manager, Scandinavian Airlines
I have no doubt the public will continue to take leisure breaks and holidays in 2009. The individual's travel budget may lessen, however, so airlines, tour operators and tourist boards are going to have to work a bit harder. I see this as a positive. It will bring competition and innovation in the form of "added value" offerings, such as third-night-free offers in a hotel, two-for-one flights in business class, and other complimentary offerings as a persuasion to travel.
Consumers are looking for new experiences and I am confident we will see an increase in short holidays within Europe.
One observation of this trend is the fact that cruise liners have decided to increase their presence in Scandinavia and the Baltic region for next Summer, possibly in anticipation of a downturn in transatlantic travel due to the negative dollar exchange rate.
Michael Collins
Publisher of 'Backpacker' and 'Abroad'
I see the short-haul and city-break market increasing at the expense of long haul in 2009. For example, Paris is the only city where room occupancy and rates increased in 2008, by 20 per cent.
The credit crunch will mean fewer people taking long-haul holidays. The only exception to this will be in the honeymoon market. The market for weddings abroad will continue to grow. Hotel rates will continue to drop with plenty of special offers and deals to be found online. Holiday bookings will be made closer and closer to departure dates as people look for late deals.
Consolidation will continue within the airline industry. In the long term this will benefit the consumer, as Europe needs strong carriers who can compete with the big international airlines, rather than multiple independent operators.
Online travel will continue to grow in 2009 with nearly all travel either being booked or researched online. Twentysomethings who lose their jobs as a result of the credit crunch will go travelling, with the majority heading to Australia and Asia.
David Slattery
Managing director, Slattery's Travel
Value is the name of the game for 2009. In previous years we were describing the fabulous places we visited and the magnificent hotels we stayed in. Next year, we will be describing the great value and deals that we got.
We will be swapping four star for three star in our favourite resorts. We will be travelling for 10 nights instead of 14. DIY internet users will again use traditional travel companies when the price is right.
Boom-time destinations such as Dubai will suffer when the essential ingredients - sun and beach - can be offered closer to home. Established long-haul destinations that offer extra value due to exchange rates, such as South Africa, will remain strong. Kenya should see an "Obama bounce". It's only small but we've started to see it already.
John Galligan
Managing director, John Galligan Travel
Our target market is slightly older and better off than most and while they might therefore be expected to be immune to the recession, they are more likely to have bank shares. As a result, very many of them are in shock. While not quite in paralysis mode, they are certainly procrastinating.
Enquiry levels are very high but they are putting off making decisions, possibly until the New Year, particularly for cruises. I see people travelling but they will be more cautious about value, by which I don't necessarily mean cheap.
One of the destinations we are getting most enquiries about right now is Mauritius - even in a downturn people are going to want to get married. When people see value in 2009, they will jump at it.
Tanya Airey
Managing director, Sunway
Our forward bookings are up on last year and what they are showing us is that Turkey is the "in" destination. It offers good quality accommodation and terrific value for money - four-star hotels at far lower rates than you'd get in comparable resorts.
One of the biggest trends we see is for weddings abroad to continue growing, both in Italy and Cyprus and in less expensive options, such as Gran Canary and Lanzarote.
The appeal here is not just that it's good value as a wedding option but that the good weather is guaranteed and people will still get married, even in a downturn.
As the economy bites people will put more emphasis on the traditional two-week summer holiday and less on winter sun, ski holidays and city breaks.
In the boom, the trend had been towards one-week sun holidays but that's now back up to two weeks simply because that's where the best value is to be had.
Long-haul, all-in holidays in value destinations such as Mexico and Dominican Republic will do well. Also, in uncertain times when people aren't sure about the financial future of airlines, we are seeing increased interest in travelling with licensed, bonded tour operators.
Brian Stack
Managing director, CIE Tours International
From January 2009 we are getting out of the business of taking people out of Ireland to concentrate all our efforts on bringing people into Ireland. It doesn't take a genius to figure out that Irish people aren't spending money so the climate was right to make that change.
We are the single largest producer of tourists into Ireland from the US, and book, in total, around 340,000 bed nights annually. Our main focus is on being profitable in 2009 but it is going to be a huge challenge.
Neil Horgan
Managing director, Abbey Travel
Bookings for summer 2009 are holding up surprisingly well compared to last year. Perhaps Irish people are not prepared to cut back on their summer holiday even in a recession. We have found ski and winter sun down considerably by comparison.
Bookings to Australia are up 26 per cent but this is in part due to twentysomethings heading off to find work. The big question is whether we will see our clients booking a second or third break as has happened in the last few years.
In terms of forward bookings for 2009, Spain, Portugal and Turkey are our top three.
I don't believe there will be a holiday price hike due to lowered capacity. I believe airlines are still hungry for business and a lot of tour operators like ourselves have still not signed up for 2009. With oil so cheap it is us who, for the first time, are telling airlines what we will pay for travel.
Charter carriers know they have to reduce prices to compete with .com carriers. These savings will be passed directly on to consumers. For example, we expect to buy seats to Turkey at a discount of five per cent on last year's price.
Ann Maxwell
Managing director, Maxwell's Travel
Adventure or walking holidays will become the new alternative for the person who wants more out of their holiday experience. In the past, these types of holidays were seen as gap year options only.
We will also see people increasingly take advantage of direct flights to Europe to explore areas away from the traditional tourist trails.
Over the past year we have seen a big increase in enquiries for countries such as Iran, Namibia, Cuba and Sri Lanka in addition to the old reliables of Peru and Kilimanjaro. That will continue.
For 2009 rail journeys, eclipse tours and specialist expedition voyages to the Polar regions will grow. Even in a downturn there is always the person that will cut back in other areas in order to get away.
Helen Cousins
Chairperson, Irish Self-Catering Federation
Our time has come. In a downturn, self-catering is the holiday option that gives you most control over your spending.
Once you've paid for the house for the week - and you can fit up to eight people in many of them - you can then eat in or out as much as you choose. You can shop in Lidl or Aldi if you want to and make yourself packed lunches every day.
People tend to underestimate the true cost of an overseas holiday, once you factor in car-parking, airport taxes and so on.
The domestic market is hugely important to us but will be even more so next year. On the downside, the UK market is going to think twice about travelling anywhere within the eurozone.
Jim Vaughan
President, Irish Travel Agents Association and managing director of Justsplit.com
We're trying to predict the unknowable in a way. Nobody really knows what is going to happen as a result of the slowdown in consumer spending.
People are just marking time at the moment waiting to see what happen. Until the banking issue and cash flow is resolved, it's hard to see how that will change.
What we are likely to see in the industry as a whole is reduced capacity. We have already begun to see it in that airlines have cut capacity for the winter and spring period, reducing the number of seats available. That sort of downsizing will continue.
At the same time what is sure is that people see their annual summer holiday as a necessity rather than a luxury. This means that while city breaks, some of which didn't offer good value, fall off, the two week summer holiday should remain solid because it really does offer value.
Enda Corneille
Director of corporate affairs, Aer Lingus
We're not expecting consumer demand to have improved next year. Customers will still be very price conscious and very value conscious, which are not the same things.
People have a taste for low-cost travel now and they are not going to give that up, but they will shop around more before nipping off to places such as London or Paris or Malaga. Equally, with US routes, they'll be looking for value.
Everybody will be looking for bargains and you are going to see a lot of airlines having a lot more sale offers to stimulate demand through price.