Why are there doubts over the Olympic Games opening in July?
With Tokyo and other parts of Japan still in a state of emergency due to Covid-19, on top of the slow vaccination rollout in a country of 126 million people, there is concern that bringing in 11,000 athletes from 206 countries, plus an estimated 70,000 officials, journalists and support staff, will potentially act as a super-spreader of the virus.
Still, the countdown clocks around Tokyo say 54 days to the opening ceremony on July 23rd.
Who is driving the call for cancellation?
On Tuesday, Asahi Shimbun – an official Olympic partner and the second largest newspaper in Japan – called for their cancellation, warning of the threat to public health. A series of public polls have shown about 80 per cent of Tokyo residents want the Games postponed again or cancelled.
Organisations representing doctors and nurses say the event would redirect stretched medical resources from the battle against Covid-19 and the vaccine rollout.
Meanwhile the spending continues to soar, last officially put at $15.4 billion, $2.8 billion more than previously stated – and that’s before the bill for the one-year delay comes in.
Why are they persisting?
The International Olympic Committee (IOC) has the final say on the Games going ahead, unless the Japanese government breaks rank – and their contract – and cancels. Overseas spectators are banned, the stadiums are certain to be empty of fans, however the TV rights represent the biggest source of IOC income, an estimated $1 billion.
What about the athletes?
They are keen for the Games to happen. For many it is a once in a lifetime chance to compete in the world's biggest sporting event and the culmination of years of preparation. The Paralympics are set to begin in Tokyo about two weeks later. No country has officially withdrawn over Covid-19 concerns, although many have cancelled pre-Games training camps in Japan. Though the Games are sticking to their timetable across 33 sports, qualification for certain events is not complete.
Won't the vaccination of athletes help ensure the Games are safe?
Earlier this month the IOC helped to secure a deal between the Japanese government and Pfizer/BioNTech to donate vaccine doses to all participants from national Olympic and Paralympic committees. Some countries have been quicker to take up the offer than others. At best, 80 per cent of competing athletes will have been vaccinated. Team Ireland has begun the process, expecting that 80-100 athletes, as well as 160-200 support staff, will be vaccinated before departing to Japan.
So what are the chances of the Games taking place?
The question is shifting from the financial and practical to the moral, and whether or not Japan should be considering a global sporting event when the health of the nation is at stake, even if the IOC doesn't see it that way. And they call the shots.
IOC president Thomas Bach has also been adamant that postponing the Games again is not an option, and that if they don't happen this summer, they won't happen at all. Bach has also said the IOC has a "toolbox" of Covid-19 counter measures in place, part of which involves all athletes leaving Tokyo as soon as the event is over. No fun or games in the Olympic village as a result.
