Images taken by a European Union satellite last week shortly before the sighting of five rogue drones in Dublin Bay show the nearby presence of a “dark vessel”, which appeared to be trying to hide its location.
It comes as a report warns Ireland may be targeted by “hostile actors” next year as it hosts the EU presidency and says the country lacks capacity to defend against such attacks.
Investigations are continuing into the presence of the unidentified drones, which were spotted by an Irish naval ship on the night of December 1st while a no-fly-zone was in place.
The incident occurred close to the flight path of the aircraft of Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who was visiting Dublin on a State visit.
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His plane landed before the drones were sighted. Mr Zelenskiy’s plane arrived at Dublin Airport shortly before 11pm that night.
Minister for Justice Jim O’Callaghan has said the drones “were for the purpose of putting pressure on EU and Ukrainian interests”.
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President of the European Council António Costa has accused Russia of orchestrating the incident as part of a pattern of “hybrid attacks” against Europe.
A new study compiled by the Institute of International and European Affairs (IIEA) and Deloitte warns “Ireland’s security environment is at its most complex, most challenging and most dangerous point in recent history”.
The paper, published on Thursday, states the prospect of an armed attack on the EU is no longer a remote possibility and that this would have dire consequences for Irish society.
Gardaí responsible for policing national security matters are focusing their investigation into the drones on where the devices originated.
Given their location, there are strong suspicions the drones were launched from a ship in the Irish Sea rather than from land. This matches the tactics employed in recent drone incursions in Denmark.
Satellite data obtained by The Irish Times shows the presence of a vessel about 19 nautical miles (36km) off the Dublin coast in the hours before the Ukrainian president’s arrival.
The vessel did not have its automatic identification system (AIS) turned on, which is in breach of maritime regulations.
This meant it was invisible to maritime tracking platforms. However, it could be captured on satellite using a technology called synthetic-aperture radar (SAR).
Analysis of SAR images show the vessel was about 64 metres long, much bigger than most fishing vessels but smaller than average cargo ships and oil tankers.
There was no satellite over the Irish Sea at the time of the drone sightings. However, five hours earlier, at about 6pm, the Sentinel-1A, an EU Space Agency satellite used by the European Maritime Safety Agency to monitor for oil spills, passed overheard and captured the ship’s presence.
It also captured the positions of two other “dark ships” that did not have their transponders switched on. These were two Irish Naval Service vessels: LÉ William Butler Yeats, whose crew first spotted the drones five hours later, and LÉ Aoibhinn.
The ships had been covertly deployed to Dublin Bay that evening to provide a maritime security cordon during Mr Zelenskiy’s visit.
The presence of the unidentified ship shortly before the incident is a vital clue for investigators from An Garda Síochána’s Special Detective Unit, the section investigating the drones incident.
The Irish Military Intelligence Service is also assisting the investigation, along with overseas security services.
The five drones came within 500 metres of the LÉ William Butler Yeats and hovered in the air for a time before disappearing.
The crew opted not to open fire due to the rules of engagement in place for the operation and the risk of hitting civilian aircraft circling overheard.
Moscow’s embassy in Dublin has dismissed allegations that Russia was behind the incident, saying such suggestions were “rumours and innuendo”.
Taoiseach Micheál Martin told the Dáil on Wednesday the presence of the drones was a “very concerning incident” similar to incidents in other EU states.
“The circumstances are suggestive of this being part of an ongoing Russian-inspired hybrid campaign against European Union and Ukrainian interests,” he said.
