Human-made global heating caused two in every three heat-related deaths in Europe during this year’s scorching summer, an early analysis of mortality in 854 big cities has found. Dublin was included in the analysis.
In a “rapid analysis” published on Wednesday, climate scientists concluded warming has tended to be stronger further inland in continental Europe, with the lowest estimated rates of warming recorded in Ireland.
Epidemiologists and climate scientists attributed 16,500 out of 24,400 heat deaths from June to August to the extra-hot weather brought on by greenhouse gases.
Based on an age-adjusted population in Dublin of 893,000, the study found there were 10 “excess deaths”, eight of which could be attributed to climate change.
RM Block
“Excess deaths” relates to an unusual increase in mortality during a specific period in a given population. In simple terms, they are above the expected natural variation or average.
Overall, the scientists found the increased heat was responsible for about 68 per cent of the estimated deaths. Older people were hit hardest by punishing temperatures, the study found, with 85 per cent of the dead over the age of 65, and 41 per cent over 85.
The rapid analysis, which relies on established methods but has not yet been submitted for peer review, found climate breakdown made the cities 2.2 degrees hotter on average. This greatly increased the death toll from dangerously warm weather.
The highest number of excess deaths was observed during the late-June to early-July heatwave. The second worst period was during the second week of August when temperatures rose to more than 40 degrees in countries around the Mediterranean.
Rome, Athens and Bucharest had the highest standardised excess mortality per one-million population.
“The causal chain from fossil fuel burning to rising heat and increased mortality is undeniable,” said Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London and a co-author of the report. “If we had not continued to burn fossil fuels over the last decades, most of the estimated 24,400 people in Europe wouldn’t have died this summer.”
