Whether Ireland ends up paying €8 billion or €26 billion in EU compliance costs (otherwise known as climate fines) by 2030, either figure is “staggering”.
This is the word used by the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council and the Climate Change Advisory Council in their analysis of possible scenarios.
At the higher or lower end, it would add up to an appalling penalty, given the amounts the country should be urgently spending on decarbonisation and putting the economy on a sustainable footing.
Parking to one side recrimination arising from inadequate responses by successive governments to the climate crisis and Ireland’s poor carbon emissions profile (in contrast to most EU member states being on a sharp downward curve), focus should concentrate on actions and solutions that work.
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There is a lack of clarity on the likely cost of purchasing “carbon credits” by the end of the decade and the extent of the availability of these credits.
The advisory councils outline gross failures to face up to climate realities and to budget for financial turbulence arising from inevitable failures to meet legally binding national and EU targets.
However, they highlight three key actions that can push the dial towards €8 billion. If combined with two others, it may be even possible to go below that figure. So what are the actions?
Inject €7 billion into the national grid
This investment is the great enabler. It will ensure electrification can transform every corner of the economy, including how we conduct business, use public transport and heat our homes.
If the long-awaited North-South Interconnector (which has been in planning for 20 years) gets over the line by 2030, this is a “win, win, win” for ensuring cheaper electricity for consumers, enhancing energy security and moving away from fossil fuels.
Invest €4 billion to reduce Electric Vehicle (EV) prices
Perhaps the most radical suggestion is the proposal to reduce the price of a typical EV to below €15,000. It involves subsiding imports, but it comes with the benefit of being non-inflationary and in one step probably makes realisable the critical target of 845,000 private EVs on Irish roads by 2030. Adding a network of fast EV chargers would complement this and quickly kill off persistent anxiety about the vehicles’ range.
Rewet 80,000 hectares of peatlands and support forestry, at a cost of €1 billion
This would single-handedly capture and store a vast amount of carbon and help end a scenario where Irish land use, including farming, is the single biggest source of emissions. It would also be a biodiversity project of international significance for restoring nature. In tandem with this, the Government needs to change incentives in agriculture.
Fully implement existing climate and renewable energy measures
This is not about praying for the least bad outcome or hoping some technology will be magicked up. The means to halve Irish emissions by 2030 is in place, with ambitious targets.
The climate maths to secure that outcome is set out in the State’s carbon budgets, which limit sectoral emissions.
But achieving this requires a fit-for-purpose planning system and reasonable timeframes for critical infrastructure. Another must is a collective understanding that climate legislation passed by the Oireachtas brings clear obligations to sectors, State agencies and local authorities.
[ Cost of our climate inaction laid bare in new reportOpens in new window ]
In a notable High Court judgment concerning a wind farm application, Mr Justice Richard Humphreys sent out the clear message that the climate emergency cannot be ignored when it comes to planning decisions.
If “the climate emergency is not addressed, far worse impacts, chaotic and unplanned will happen on landscapes here and everywhere”, he said in his ruling last January.
He also suggested An Bord Pleanála, which had rejected the application, should train its inspectors and board members in climate law and science and allocate work so that “only duly trained people who understand climate issues at a deep level should be allowed near projects”.
Scale up offshore wind, district heating and biomethane
Exploiting Irish offshore wind resources, especially floating technology off the west coast, rolling out district heating systems in urban areas, and ramping up anaerobic digesters to produce green biomethane are all proven pathways to a better climate.
In each case, there are blockages to deployment. It may be too late to get them fully up to speed by 2030, but their potential is such that they can provide momentum in pushing on to net zero emissions by 2050.
