Negotiators at the UN climate talks in Baku are facing into difficult final hours as an attempt to rescue a deal after the latest “decision text” presented on Friday was roundly rejected by developing countries.
The “X” in the previous proposed text was replaced by $250 billion by the Cop29 presidency, which is leading negotiations. The figure is what rich countries are prepared to allocate annually to climate-vulnerable countries – but how it will be made up was dismissed as being vague and over-relying on private finance.
Others, however, acknowledged some progress on the climate finance goal and on mitigation – how countries cut carbon emissions while transitioning away from fossil fuels.
Cop29 host Azerbaijan announced late on Friday, however, a plenary meeting of participating countries would not be held until Saturday, which may be an indication of how deadlocked the talks have become – or a wish to get them across the line in one final push in the coming hours.
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The latest proposal called for rich nations to “take the lead” in providing the $250 billion annually by 2035 through a wide variety of sources, including public finance. It represents a more than doubling of an existing $100 billion annual commitment, but would give countries another decade to reach the new target. It calls for total funding of at least $1.3 trillion annually – the bulk of it in private financing – by 2035.
The plan drew swift condemnation from climate advocates in developing and vulnerable countries who insisted far more money was needed to deal with consequences of decades of unchecked greenhouse gas emissions.
“There has been progress made between the first and second drafts of the text but there is still work to be done across a range of areas. It’s important that we get a deal here and Ireland will play its part to help ensure this,” said Minister for Climate Eamon Ryan.
It’s “deeply insulting” and “far worse than we expected”, said Lidy Nacpil, an activist from the Philippines. “We’d rather have one more year of fighting on this” and try for a deal at next year’s summit in Brazil, she said, than accept something so terrible now.
“There is no deal to come out of Baku that will not leave a bad taste in everyone’s mouth, but we are within sight of a landing zone for the first time all year,” said Avinash Persaud, special adviser on climate at the Inter-American Development Bank.
Sinead Walsh, climate director with the Department of Foreign Affairs, said that while analysis was still being carried out on the latest text, it seemed there was some progress since the first draft text was issued on Thursday. “It seems we are getting closer to where we need to be.”
[ The Irish Times view on the Cop29 summit: failure is not an optionOpens in new window ]
It is anticipated that one final draft will be issued early on Saturday. Most eyes were focused on the climate final goal while the $250 billion in the current draft text was the core in the form of public funding, while the bigger number of $1.3 trillion flags what all sources of finance should add up to, she said.
“Finance was always going to be incredibly difficult,” she added – especially as it was a tricky time for many countries facing challenging financial circumstances at present.
Ireland, she said, was worried that commitments on gender and human rights had “got worse”.
A key priority for Ireland, she said, was a good outcome on adaptation, with 80 per cent of the country’s climate finance being spent under this heading, to enable least-developed countries and small island developing states build climate resilience.
Adaptation negotiations, led by Mr Ryan with his Costa Rican counterpart, were constructive, “with parties in the room wanting to move forward”. They were hoping increased adaptation funding would be tied down with agreement on the climate finance goal.
The only outstanding text, Ms Walsh said, was on Article 6 of the Paris Agreement on rules governing carbon markets, where developing countries could avail of funds through trading of carbon credits with developed countries and companies for projects such as afforestation. Current arrangements are not strongly regulated.
The host country said it would push on though the official deadline for ending the talks had passed. The $250 billion target “doesn’t correspond to our fair and ambitious goal, but we will continue. We are committed,” said lead negotiator Yalchin Rafiyev.
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