1. It’s getting hotter and hotter
A series of scientific reports issued during Cop29 say effectively the same thing. Key indicators are at record levels, whether it’s temperature or planet-warming gases. There’s no visibility when fossil fuels might peak and “budgets” are failing miserably to constrain carbon pollution.
Current policies would lead to 2.7 degrees of warming this century, according to Climate Action Tracker; overheating that would threaten human civilisation.
2. Trump will single-handedly worsen climate breakdown
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A menacing ghost at the global climate summit is US president-elect Donald Trump.
The climate hoaxer’s agenda is a combination of ratcheting up oil and gas exploration; attempting to scuttle America’s short-lived status as world leader in clean energy – ie dismember Joe Biden’s climate policy – and exit the Paris Agreement again.
The risk to Earth is clear and acknowledged in Baku. UK climate scientist Bob Ward noted: “There is just the faintest ray of hope now that the world will limit global warming to 1.5 degrees, but Donald Trump may extinguish it.”
The US team are busy hoping its climate policy “will have enough juice to outlast a Trumpian assault”, as one observer put it. “What we will see is whether we’ve escape velocity or not and how quickly the booster packs are about to fall off,” said Ali Zaidi, Biden’s top climate adviser at Cop29.
3. Petrostates, even if hosts of climate Cops, believe oil and gas are gifts from heaven
There remains a chasm between countries who believe carbon pollution is the source of our collective ills and those who believe oil and gas are natural resources to be used to drive their economies. The latest manifestation of the latter is Ilham Aliyev, president of host country Azerbaijan, who praised oil and gas as “a gift of God”.
4. Lessons from Spain are grasped by all, especially in western world
Meteorological mayhem is evident in every continent but the trauma being experienced by Spain has hit home in a profound way. Here was a wealthy country which could not prevent hundreds of deaths and a shocking level of destruction from ferocious flooding.
It brought home to delegates that acknowledging the climate threat is all very well but consequences of inability to cope; lack of preparedness, poor flood defences and defective early-warning systems can suddenly land on your doorstep.
5. There’s a desperate need for advanced weather warning systems
There is a sense every corner of the planet is now in the throes of worsening climate disruption. It has led to an acute need for advanced warning systems.
Many African countries have the most basic weather forecasting systems which heightens their vulnerability. Weather and climate data, aka climate services, are critical to better decisions and collaboration between countries.
The World Meteorological Association reported a doubling of countries deploying advanced systems. Keith Lambkin, head of climate services at Met Éireann, was heartened by its highlighting of progress made by Ireland in becoming a global leader in climate services, which he believes will enhance the collective response.
6. Money, money, money
The make-or-break issue is committing funds to enable developing countries build resilience and adopt clean energy. A substantial upscaling of $100 billion a year currently is critical to an acceptable outcome. Geopolitical uncertainty, distractions of conflict and lack of mutual trust may conspire to deliver no deal.
That is unconscionable given what global leaders and delegations were told on the precarious state of Earth, which is about to deliver a damaged and less safe planet to children of today.
The amounts involved are jaw-dropping. Poorer countries who contributed least to an overheating planet need $1.3 trillion by 2035, analysis by leading economists showed. Then again, some $7 trillion in fossil fuel subsidies are paid out by governments every year. So coughing up what is required is doable.
7. Aviation, shipping and billionaires: time to make your contribution
The days of high-emitting aviation, shipping and billionaires getting away scot-free for their carbon pollution may be ending. A report issued at Cop29 on “solidarity levies” found they could raise the guts of $1 trillion.
They are technically simple but able to raise large sums. They include taxes on fossil fuels, flights, shipping and financial transactions. They have serious backers led by prime minister of Barbados Mia Mottley and French president Emmanuel Macron. Such policies are necessary, they contend, to ensure everyone contributes their fair share.
8. Big disconnect prevails
The absence of global leaders from powerful economies, responsible for the vast majority of emissions, undermined Cop29. Those who attended acknowledged blockages to progress and greater urgency.
Their latitudes aside, Cop29 is likely to come up short yet again. This should prompt a radical overhaul of how Cops operate with reforms along the lines suggested by influential former political leaders and eminent scientists.
Some are hoping a strong signal from wealthy G20 countries meeting in Rio will inject momentum into Baku negotiations. That would build enough trust potentially to make Cop30 next year a more significant outcome with scaled-up ambition.
9. Emerging positive is striking but will we be fast enough?
A beacon of hope at Cop29 is evidence of the clean energy revolution gathering momentum in so many countries. The economic imperative is clearer and more compelling – “with every renewables roll out, every innovation, and every price drop”, said UN chief António Guterres.
With solar and wind the cheapest source of new electricity “doubling down on fossil fuels is absurd”, he added. The clean energy revolution is here. No group, no business and no government can stop it. Guterres added: “But you can and must ensure it is fair, and fast enough to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees.”
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