Climate change and hazardous weather are reversing development gains and threatening the wellbeing of people and the planet, according to a new report co-ordinated by the World Meteorological Organisation.
Greenhouse gas concentrations are at record levels, fuelling temperature increase into the future, the United in Science 2024 report finds. “The emissions gap between aspiration and reality remains high. Under current policies, there is a two-thirds likelihood of global warming of 3 degrees this century,” it states.
In that event, it can be assumed Africa and the Global South will bear the brunt.
Yet the report offers grounds for hope, exploring how advances in natural and social sciences, new technologies and innovation enhance understanding of “the Earth system” and could be game-changers for climate change adaptation, disaster risk reduction and sustainable development. AI and machine learning can make skilful weather modelling faster, cheaper and more accessible to lower-income countries with limited computational capacities.
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“The United Nations Summit of the Future provides a once-in-a-generation opportunity to revitalise and reboot our collective commitment to the global goals”, the report states. Compiled by UN agencies, meteorological organisations and scientific bodies, it includes input from young people and early career scientists – “agents of change for the future”.
But more urgent focus on cutting emissions is needed, with similar focus on adaptation, building resilience for inevitable impacts, it adds. Too many countries have no adaptation planning, while a significant gap remains in flows of international adaptation finance – from the rich Global North to the Global South.
Central Europe experienced extreme flooding with death and destruction due to the slow-moving Storm Boris this month. Cities from Poland to Italy were inundated. Yet almost at the same time epic flooding from unusually heavy rains across central Africa took more than 1,000 lives and drove close to a million people from their homes.
Warmer global temperatures allow more water to evaporate from oceans and intensify rainfall, even as they also suck moisture from parched landscapes where it’s not raining – the “wet get wetter, dry get drier” paradox.
While global warming is increasingly causing havoc across the entire planet, these two events illustrate a contrasting reality: the higher vulnerability of Africa and the Global South, in that their resilience is weaker. Many countries are caught up in a deadly cycle of drought, extreme rainfall and wildfires, Brazil being a typical example. Inevitably, this is where climate-driven injustice, conflict and migration are concentrated.
It all goes back to rising emissions, with burning of fossil fuels being the main culprit, and intensive agriculture and harmful industries compounding matters. Data from ActionAid shows how more than $650 billion (€585 billion) a year in public subsidies goes to fossil fuel companies, intensive agriculture and other harmful industries in the developing world.
“The subsidies entrench high greenhouse gas emissions and are fuelling destruction of the natural world,” the Action Aid report states, while developed countries are subsidising such harmful activities. The sums involved in the developing world would be enough to pay for the education of all children in sub-Saharan Africa three and a half times over, each year.
Developing countries are receiving only a fraction of climate finance, which would help them to move away from dirty and polluting industries towards a clean and low-carbon economy. Renewable energy projects in the developing world are receiving 40 times less than the fossil fuel sector.
These subsidies have been among the most intractable obstacles to shifting the global economy to a low-carbon footing. ActionAid says many subsidies are due to “corporate capture” of governments and public institutions.
“This report exposes wealthy corporations’ parasitic behaviour,” says Arthur Larok, secretary general of ActionAid International. “They are draining the life out of the global south by siphoning public funds and fuelling the climate crisis.”
He also blames governments in wealthy countries: “Sadly the promises of climate finance by the Global North are as hollow as the empty rhetoric they have been uttering for decades.”
[ Ireland’s emissions per capita now 23% higher than EU average, report findsOpens in new window ]
It is not necessary for developing countries to adopt high-carbon and intensive agricultural practices, ActionAid finds, as they could move swiftly to a low-carbon model that would still enable them to grow and prosper.
“Climate finance, when done equitably through grants, not loans, allows for a just transition to low-carbon economies which requires significant investment in renewable energy and sustainable agriculture, which many countries cannot afford independently,” notes Karol Balfe chief executive of ActionAid Ireland.
“Climate finance offers crucial support for these transitions, fostering sustainable development while reducing the risk of future climate emergencies.”
Yet climate finance grants from the Global North for climate-hit countries “is still grossly insufficient to support climate action and the necessary transitions”, amounting to a 20th of the Global South public finance going to fossil fuels and industrial agriculture.
“While it’s hugely welcome that Ireland contributes grants and not loans, we are way below our fair share of climate finance, estimated at €500 million per year,” says Balfe.
Ireland is also a significant channel for global institutional investment in fossils fuels and industrial agriculture, with funds registered here holding €5.7 billion in bonds and shares in climate harming activities in the Global South – as of September 2023.
* Wednesday: Africa’s demands for reform of the UN Security Council
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