IF IT HAD been known last Thursday that Fianna Fail would get just 39.3 per cent of the national vote and the PDs would collapse, the expectation would have been that the Rainbow Coalition would be returned to office.

With just 39.3 per cent of the vote, Fianna Fail - allowing for the party's usual bonus of about two percentage points of seats over votes - could have been expected to win 68 to 69 seats, With the four PD seats, the alternative coalition would have been so far from a workable majority as to have no prospect of being In government.

But something Quite extraordinary happened in this election. For the first time in the history of Irish electoral politics, Fianna Fall has won a "bonus" of seven percentage points of seats over votes, It is as though the party won 46,3 per cent of the first preference vote rather than 39.3 per cent.

Part of the explanation for this was the surprising rate of transfers from the Progressive Democrats to Fianna Fail. Part of it was the failure of the Independents (including the smaller parties) to translate their votes into seats. The Independents (including the smaller parties) won 15.1 per cent of the votes but only (at the time of writing) 6 per cent of the seats. Part of it was a brilliantly organised vote management strategy devised by Bertie Ahern, Pat Farrell, PJ Mara and Ray MacSharry.

It is certain, of course, that Bertie Ahern will be the next Taoiseach, but it will be of a minority Fianna Fail Progressive Democrats government. And the confidence that, because three or four of the Independents "lean" towards Fianna Fail, the government will have a secure majority may well be misplaced.

Several fractious issues could destabilise this government, including Northern Ireland policy (on which Fianna Fall leaning In dependents may become restive), EMU and abortion.

It is not at all implausible that the new government could undergo a crisis which could again be resolved by a realignment of parties the reemergence of a Fianna Fail/Labour government.

FIANNA Fail is fortunate in having Rertie Ahern as its leader in circumstances as fraught as they are likely to be in the new Dail. His ameliorative nature and calm disposition will be vital assets In keeping relations with the Progressive Democrats and disparate Independents on course. He has none of the self destructive instincts that marked his two immediate predecessors.

His skills in personal relations and in negotiations are also likely to prove significant assets in the management of the Northern Ireland peace process. He can be relied upon to manage the economy with caution and prudence, and his unnerving experience from the early 1993 currency crisis will prove useful in managing the decision on EMU.

As was underlined during the election campaign, the Progressive Democrats are more sceptical than other parties a bout the wisdom of joining the single currency should Britain decide not to. Bertie's own instincts are very much in the same vein. He said in an interview in late 1995 (which he now appears to have forgotten) that he was opposed to Ireland joining without Britain. But there could be a problem here.

It appears that legally we have no choice but to join if we meet the criteria for membership. The terms of the Maastricht Treaty appear to leave us no option and, indeed, the fact that there had to be a special derogation to permit the United Kingdom to opt out seems to confirm the view that legally we would be obliged to join.

It may appear that this might not matter because the other member states might not want to insist on our compliance with the treaty in such circumstances, But what if a case were taken to the European Court of justice, say by a financial institution that had based its development plans on the assumption that we would accord with our treaty obligations? Would the European Court insist on us complying? And some of the assortment of Independents, upon whose support the government may be relying, could well develop reservations about the EMU.

But Bertie Ahern should prove a good Taoiseach and we may well see him grow in office as John Bruton did.

FINE GAEL, is overjoyed by its increase in seats from the disastrous outcome of 1992. The improvement in the sent count may disguise a malaise, however. In terms of the first preference vote, Fine Gael scored its third worst result since 1948; the worst two results being in 1992 and in 1987 when it won fractionally a smaller proportion of the votes after a most difficult four years in office.

The party will be very satisfied for the time being with John Bruton as leader, given his impressive performance as Taoiseach and his own excellent election campaign, But opposition does not suit John Bruton, and it is not implausible that unrest will surface again in Fine Gael.

Furthermore, the Michael Lowry affair is by no means over and he has the potential to cause problems for his "best friend, best friend forever", John Bruton: Labour will undergo a catharsis over the loss of almost half the seats it won in 1992, But the party's overall performance was its second best since 1965 and, in spite of the set back, Dick Spring remains its most successful leader ever, It may be that the party will be summoned back to office before the next election, but if that issue arises, people such as Roisin Shorthall and Tommy Broughan may resign from the parliamentary party. Democratic Left has lost all its backbenchers (Kathleen Lynch and Eric Byrne) and very nearly its leader, Proinsias De Rossa. The DL leader will be under all intense spotlight again next month when he returns to the High Court to pursue for the third time his libel action against the Sunday Independent.

Finally, for the Progressive Democrats It was another electoral disaster. It could have been much worse for Mary Harney. Des O'Malley and Liz O'Donnell could have gone as well, leaving Bobby Molloy as the only survivor, It was a disastrous campaign for the PDs and, arguably, its alliance with Fianna Fail damaged the Fianna Fail first preference vote nationally.