REGIONAL analysts generally agree that the 16 day Grapes of Wrath offensive in southern Lebanon, which ended in an uneasy ceasefire early on Saturday, was a political military defeat for Israel.
The operation failed to achieve Israel's primary objective, peace along the Lebanese border.
Israel did not drive the guerrillas of the Hizbullah resistance from the area, nor, through its campaign of bombing Lebanon's civilian infrastructure, did it compel the Lebanese government to disarm and disband the guerrillas, or force Syria to deprive them of weaponry provided by Iran. The situation on the border remains essentially what it was before Grapes of Wrath was launched on April 11th.
Nor, because of this failure, did the Israeli Prime Minister, Mr Shimon Peres a Nobel Peace laureate - distinguish himself as a war leader and guarantee his re election next month.
Grapes of Wrath was also a public relations disaster for Israel because of the massacre by Israeli gunners of 120 civilian refugees at the Fijian UN headquarters at Qana. This massacre brought home to the world that Israel had forced 400,000 Lebanese civilians to flee their homes while Israeli gunners pounded south Lebanon with 24,000 shells in response to 750 Katyusha rockets fired by Hizbullah into northern Israel.
The action was disproportionate and was so described by critics.
Meanwhile the US, which completely identified itself with Israel's campaign and gave it full support throughout, lost whatever credibility it had managed to retain (in spite of its permanent pro Israel bias) as an "honest broker" in the Middle East peace process.
The peace process itself was seriously damaged by Israel's resort to war. Arab rulers have become still more wary of connections with a Jewish state condemned by their subjects. Because of its total commitment to Israel, the US once again rendered the UN Security Council impotent and through its ally, Britain prevented the European Union from assuming a key role in bringing the conflict to a close.
The main "winner" was, of course, the Syrian President, Mr Hafez al Assad, who emerged from a period of isolation as the Arab power broker. He "won" without his army firing one shot or his country suffering one bombing run by an Israeli jet.
The second "winner", on the political plane, was the Lebanese Prime Minister, Mr Rafiq Hariri. After being dismissed by Israel and the US as a satrap of Syria and of no account, Mr Hariri was propelled into centre stage and became the Arab party to the ceasefire "understanding" rather than Mr Assad - who had been the choice of the US and Israel.
Meanwhile post civil war Lebanon, as a country, regained communal unity, a great spirit achievement. But this unity Lebanon 174 dead, 350 - and material damage amounting $500 million.
The third "winner" was which "returned" to the region. The Lebanese and their Arab brothers give France credit for achieving the ceasefire for which the US has taken credit and believe France will, in future, play a greater role in the peace process, as a counterweight to the pro Israeli US - a role the Arabs had hoped Europe as a whole would assume.
The fourth "winner" was Hizbullah, which kept its guerrillas in the field firing their rockets until the very last moment, becoming the Lebanese "national resistance". And Hizbullah has already begun to win the hearts and minds of the southern Lebanese villagers by beginning the reconstruction of their smashed homes, roads, schools, clinics and water and electricity supply systems.
Along with Hizbullah, its patron Iran was a "winner" because Tehran was brought in from the diplomatic cold to take part in negotiations on the ceasefire, much to the chagrin of the US and Israel.
Unfortunately, Israel's "defeat" in Grapes of Wrath did not translate into a willingness to withdraw from the "swamp" of southern Lebanon. Indeed, Israel and the US rejected the French demand to include in the ceasefire "understanding" mention of Security Council resolution 425, calling for a total Israeli pull out. This amounted to a strategic defeat for the "winners", Syria, Lebanon and France, and for the deadlocked peace process.
