BELFAST BRIEFING:There is every chance another DeLorean-style proposal would be welcomed today

WHEN IT comes to the Northern Ireland economy there is a general rule of thumb that should always be observed.

For argument’s sake let’s call it the DeLorean principle. It is pretty simple to apply – when something looks too good to be true, there is normally a catch.

This applies right across the board in the North, whatever the issue might be, from the Northern Ireland Executive’s draft budget, to the promise of a new corporation tax rate or pledges made by a potential new investor.

The DeLorean principle is a lasting reminder to the North about the dangers of believing in a glistening promise.

It is easy to see with the benefit of hindsight and against the backdrop of soaring unemployment in the late 1970s why John DeLorean’s plan to build sports cars in Northern Ireland was so seductive.

If history was erased and his proposal was pitched today for the first time in the North, there is every chance it would be embraced with as much enthusiasm as it generated nearly three decades ago.

Recessions make people desperate for have-a-go business mavericks with a briefcase full of prosperity promises.

But the fact that DeLorean’s dream for the DMC-12 sports car failed miserably and squandered more than £80 million (€95 million) of government grants, shows that gift horses bearing jobs may not be all they seem.

A case in point is the leading London law firm Allen and Overy which recently unveiled plans to set up a support centre in Belfast which could create 300 high-quality jobs. Allen and Overy has been offered grants by Invest Northern Ireland of more than £2.5 million towards the cost of its new Belfast operation.

As part of the investment project the law firm has included a clause that it will, in theory, transfer 180 existing jobs from its London offices to the new Belfast centre. If the workers who are affected decide not to relocate to the North, they could be in a position where their only other option is a redundancy package.

Allen and Overy has hinted it might be prepared to offer its staff a financial sweetener to encourage them to consider a move to Belfast.

It is understood the firm may consider using some of the grant money it will receive to incentivise staff to move which could work out at about £8,000 per person.

Allen and Overy has not publicly commented on this proposition. All it has said is that it is about to enter a “period of consultation regarding its proposals” and until this is completed it will not know the exact details of the relocation packages.

There are some in the North who have questioned whether the law firm is acting within the “spirit” of the investment deal.

Not only might the company “subsidise” existing staff to relocate from London to Belfast by using government grants but its decision to relocate in Northern Ireland may also result in some of its existing staff losing their jobs.

From one perspective it may appear simply too good to be true that a major international law firm would chose to invest in Northern Ireland simply at face value and without the lure of major financial incentives.

But on the other hand there are probably few people who will really care about the “catch” in this instance – particularly those in Northern Ireland who might one day get a job with Allen and Overy.

The company has admitted it is unlikely to tempt the majority of its existing workforce to pack up and relocate to Belfast – despite the obvious temptations.

So the net result for Northern Ireland is probably in the region of 300 new jobs and, given the state of the local job market and regardless of the “spirit” involved, this particular gift horse may turn out to be a good thing.

New official government statistics published this month show the number of people out of work in the North has hit a 13-year high.

The latest figures suggest that, by the close of last year, 68,000 people were without a job and there is no end in sight to Northern Ireland’s rising unemployment rates. Last month a further 600 people joined the dole queues in Northern Ireland which means that about 59,100 received jobless benefit payments in January.

According to the latest Northern Ireland Labour Force Survey, nearly half of all the people who do not have a job in the North at the moment have been unemployed for more than a year.

The survey also shows that one in four people who are aged between 18 and 24 years cannot find a job at home at this time.

Add to these grim statistics other factors, such as depressed local house prices and a predicted rise in property repossessions, and it is easy to see why any new investor coming to Northern Ireland is going to be welcomed with open arms and for the moment a nice fat grant – regardless of any catch involved.

Principles are one thing, but when it comes to jobs, it is a case of back to the future for the North’s economy.