Consumer confidence has fallen sharply in a month during which there was a string of job loss announcements, according to the latest results of The Irish Times /TNS mrbi survey.
It shows that 61 per cent of people expect employment levels and the economy to weaken in the year ahead, three percentage points up on the previous month.
The third monthly results of the survey show a declining trend in confidence, with the latest figures - collected between June 24th and July 17th - likely to have been heavily influenced by the steady flow of redundancy announcements in early July.
The percentage expecting the economy to weaken rose six points from the May results.
The latest figures show that 10 per cent expect an improvement in the economy and employment over the next year, down one point from the previous month, while 27 per cent expect conditions to remain the same, compared to 29 per cent. Of those surveyed, 2 per cent said they didn't know whether conditions would improve or weaken.
The survey - known as the Pulse monitor - is designed to provide a regular and reliable measure of consumer confidence. It is undertaken each month as part of a telephone survey by TNS mrbi based on a representative sample of adults.
The question asked was: "Thinking about the year ahead, do you think employment levels and the Irish economy in general are set to improve, weaken or remain the same? "
Results last month are likely to have been affected by high-profile job losses in companies such as Diageo, Tayto and Waterford Crystal, and a stream of redundancies in smaller firms across the State.
During the survey period, the June unemployment figures were published showing an 11,700 monthly increase and bringing the jobless rate to more than 5 per cent of the labour force for the first time in four years.
Meanwhile, official figures showed a 21 per cent jump in redundancies in June compared to the same month last year.
The combination of these announcements and the personal experience of the public of a more difficult jobs market are likely to have damaged confidence during the month.
The results also indicate some public scepticism about predictions of economic recovery in the second half of the year.
The latest ESRI medium-term review, predicting a gradual recovery moving into next year, was published too late to influence this month's survey.
"Against the backdrop of mounting job losses, the message is clear - consumer confidence has weakened significantly," according to Mr Ian McShane of TNS mrbi. "The only question now seems to be when, and not if, consumer spending will begin to register a significant downturn."
Retail sales remained reasonably firm up to April but the latest figures showed the volume of sales in May was 2.2 per cent below the same month last year and 5.2 per cent down on the previous month. The survey suggests this trend may continue.
The breakdown of the latest survey shows increasing pessimism in most categories. Of those working, 64 per cent expect conditions to worsen, up from 61 per cent in June and 59 per cent in May.
Among women at home, there was a sharp increase in those expecting conditions to weaken - from 53 per cent in June to 64 per cent this month. Among retired people, the figure rose to 57 per cent, three percentage points up on the previous month and seven points higher than May.
There is no notable regional variation in the figures, with the percentage expecting conditions to worsen being lowest in Connacht/Ulster (59 per cent) and highest in Munster (63 per cent). The percentage expecting an improvement was lowest in Dublin (8 per cent) and highest in Connacht/Ulster ( 11 per cent).
As with the previous survey, younger people are generally more optimistic.
Of those in the 45-54 age group, 70 per cent expect employment conditions and the economy to weaken and just 6 per cent are expecting an improvement.
Of those who classified themselves as a "business person", 60 per cent expect conditions to weaken, with 4 per cent expecting an improvement and 37 per cent anticipating no change in the year ahead.
