Official economic results for 1997 submitted by EU member-states to the European Commission confirm previous projections that 11 countries are likely to participate in the euro from day one.

Greece is unable to make the grade yet, and Britain, Sweden and Denmark are adopting a wait-and-see approach, although all comfortably comply with Maastricht criteria.. The remaining 11 must now wait for the verdicts of the Commission and the European Monetary Institute (EMI), due on March 25th, on the whether their performance can be sustained - verdicts that are expected to be favourable to all 11.

Ireland is in with the leaders, reporting a current account surplus of 0.9 per cent and a debt to GDP ratio of 66.3 per cent, in the latter case 0.7 percentage points better than that forecast only last week by the Minister for Finance, Mr McCreevy. It is expected to fall to 61 per cent by the end of this year.

The EU-wide figures caused barely a ripple on foreign exchange markets, convinced that the euro would be initiated as an 11-member club since last year, when it became clear that Italy had succeeded in bringing order to its traditionally chaotic public finances.

At 2.7 per cent of GDP instead of the expected 2.9 per cent, the German and Italian deficit performance exceeded expectations, as did the French, hitting the Maastricht 3.0 per cent target straight on the head. Remarkably, Rome has cut its deficit from 10 per cent of GDP in just four years, but it is not yet out of the woods. Some of the success is attributable to a one-off eurotax and the government will have to convince the EMI and Commission of its ability to sustain current position.

Italy is due to announce its three-year economic programme on April 15th, ahead of the decision on May 2nd by heads of governments on who will participate in the euro launch.

But yesterday Reppublica carried an interview with the Economic Affairs Commissioner, Mr Yves Thibault de Silguy, suggesting it would help the Commission to make its recommendation if he had the programme before March 25th. Governments have in the past been willing to pass such information on to the Commission in confidence.

Mr de Silguy welcomed the overall figures yesterday as "better than we expected", but warned against regarding an 11-member euro as a foregone conclusion.

In a joint statement with the President of the Commission, Mr Jacques Santer, he welcomed the evidence of successful convergence but would say only that they were "confident a large number of countries will be participating in the launch of the euro on January 1st, 1999".

Italy, which, along with Belgium, is furthest from meeting the Maastricht debt target of 60 per cent, said its debt fell to 121.6 per cent of GDP last year. France maintained its debt below the 60 per cent threshold, one of only four EU countries to do so - but Maastricht requires only that countries approach this target at a "satisfactory rate".

Ireland has reduced its debt from 95.2 per cent in 1990, a rate of decline unequalled by far in the Union.

While Germany did not meet the euro debt target of 60 per cent of GDP, as the figure for 1997 was 61.3 per cent, the Finance Minister, Mr Theo Waigel, said in Bonn that this was due to the costs of German re-unification and would not stop German participation in the euro.

The figures were a sign, he said, that "the euro will be stable and this is a good starting point", adding that "it's not enough to have champagne but I will relax with a wheat beer". Mr Waigel recalled past controversy about how strictly the limit should be applied: "We always said that three is three."

Although its debt/GDP ratio is still double the Maastricht target, Belgium says it has made significant and sustainable progress on trimming the debt. As a result, it says, the current level should not stand in the way of EMU membership.

Britain, an EMU non-starter, announced a big drop in its 1997 deficit to 1.9 per cent of GDP, compared with 4.8 per cent in 1996. Gross debt last year was 53.4 per cent of GDP, again comfortably within EMU qualification parameters.

Attention now shifts towards reports to be drawn up by the Commission, EMI and separately by the Bundesbank, whose report is due on March 27th. The Bundesbank view will be crucial to reassuring both houses of the German parliament, due to vote on the issue before the end of April.

Germany's Chancellor, Dr Helmut Kohl, yesterday weighed in by reaffirming EMU would start on time and the euro would be stable. "I am certain that the euro will come punctually as planned. . . it will be a stable currency just as we have grown accustomed to with the mark for almost 50 years," he said.

Even Greece, which will not qualify for the first wave of EMU, has slashed its deficit and inflation in a race to catch up with the founders by the time euro banknotes and coins come into circulation in 2002.