The Government plans to introduce by summer an early warning system that would highlight any threat to jobs in the recovering economy.
Minister for Jobs Richard Bruton plans to use sensitive data not previously published as part of the initiative to track employment and cost trends and make them public each month.
The proposal is one of several cited in a jobs masterplan from the Minister’s department. As the push to deliver full employment intensifies, the plan says policy interventions up to 2017 will depend on the collection and analysis of data from the economy.
The Statement of Strategy also commits the Government to bring forward legislation this year to improve the operation of the Personal Injuries Assessment Board.
The board’s introduction in 2004 reduced legal and insurance costs but the department believes reforms may achieve a faster, more cost-efficient claims resolution.
Trends The early warning mechanism on key economic trends is under trial now in anticipation of its introduction. Mr Bruton’s aim is to provide guidance to policymakers and inform debate sooner than official data picks up changing conditions.
The initiative comes amid anxiety that competitiveness gains made since the economy crashed could be lost as employment increases.
Unemployment reached 15.1 per cent at the height of the crisis but dropped to 10 per cent in March and is widely forecast to fall below that level this month.
The Government believes a rate below 6 per cent can be achieved in 2018, a level it equates with full employment.
Live Register Official Live Register figures set out the situation in the real economy only as jobs are actually gained or lost. However, the first of two new monthly data series would embrace unofficial figures held by Government and public agencies to provide insight into the underlying position.
While this index would reflect jobs announced but not yet in place, it would also take account of private warnings to Government of jobs at risk, formal redundancy notifications and work permit applications.
A second monthly data series would take stock of costs in respect of labour, transport, energy, property, other services and currency trends. The cost index would be derived mainly from data published by the Central Statistics Office and other public bodies.
These data series – developed by the strategic policy division of Mr Bruton’s department – would be similar in format to monthly purchasing managers’ indices, used as a proxy for real-time information on actual activity in the economy.
