LEAKED DOCUMENTS:When you are a programme country you no longer have full control of your destiny
BEYOND THE Government’s huge embarrassment at the German Bundestag getting sight of Irish budgetary proposals in advance of the Oireachtas is a new and harsh reality – when you are a programme country you no longer have full ownership or control of your destiny, or even your secrets.
The political context in Europe this week has been about future plans of a two-track euro zone and about European Union treaty changes that will lead to Ireland ceding more fiscal sovereignty. Yesterday gave critics of that process some tangible ammunition when a confidential document was leaked from a German parliamentary committee.
Minister for Communication Pat Rabbitte has said Ireland’s four-year bailout programme has essentially meant that the troika “are correcting our homework”. So, too seemingly is Germany’s 41-member federal finance committee.
The document that was leaked was a draft of the document drawn up by the troika following its visit here last month. That was a review of Ireland’s performance in meeting its targets for quarter three of 2012. The document contains all of the conditions the Government must meet – broken down on a quarter by quarter basis – between now and 2014. It would normally be made public only after the budget was announced in December.
Embarrassingly the 32-page document also included very specific details of what will be in this year’s budget, and in the December 2012 budget, although most of the measures have been well flagged at this stage.
But, the very fact that this document (which updates and brings all the elements in the programme together) was being circulated for approval in the German parliament before the Oireachtas had sight of it is an extraordinary development – and gives the impression (or perhaps merely reinforces of it) that the real decisions about Ireland’s future are being made in Berlin and elsewhere.
The Government response has veered from implausible denial to private anger directed at the European Commission, which some figures in Government believe was responsible for the indiscretion. Enda Kenny and Eamon Gilmore said no final decisions had been made about the budget yet. But it is clear that this is the draft of the quarter three review paper from the troika and it does include sensitive and (we must assume) accurate information about two different budgets and about other initiatives the Government will take in order to meet the stringent requirements (including the provision of an ambitious plan to sell off State assets to be delivered by the end of next month).
The details contained in the document are intriguing. The Government vowed not to touch income tax in next month’s budget but there is a reference to income tax bands being broadened in the 2013 proposals.
On top of that, there are very interesting references to a new form of motor tax as well as to excise duty increases. That suggests that perhaps alcohol and cigarettes increases may be moderate next month, but steep in the budget for 2013.
