Ireland ranks highest among European countries in terms of trade confidence, according to a new survey published on Tuesday.
HSBC’s latest Trade Condidence Index shows Ireland rating well above the neutral mark of 100 at 119, two points higher than in March, when the last survey was issued.
The study shows that Irish firms are feeling increasingly optimistic about the future with about 70 per cent of survey respondents expect trade volumes to increase over the next six months, compared to 65 per cent in the last report. However, the share of firms expecting a significant, rather than slight pick-up in trading volumes fell 3 per cent to 9 per cent.
HSBC said that relatively strong economic growth in the US and UK will be key drivers for Ireland in the near term with chemicals and pharmaceuticals set to play the biggest role in driving export growth. Meanwhile the country's agri-business sector is predicted to grow by as much as 40 per cent by 2030.
The report warns that Ireland needs to concentrate on increasing business with emerging markets if firms are to fully exploit export opportunities. Notwithstanding this warning, it predicts double digit export growth in trade with China, Vietnam and Malaysia by 2030.
“As a dynamic and very open economy, trade prospects look positive for Ireland in the short and medium term, aided by robust expansions in the US and UK economies. Greater endeavours to diversify trade towards fast-growing emerging economies would boost this picture further. And while the importance of agriculutral trade is likely to decline in relative terms, demand from theese economies should ensure agriculture still maintains an important role in Irish trade,” the survey concludes.
Advanced economies in Europe and the US will continue to be the main sources of demand for exports of agricultural products out to 2030, according to the report. But exports to emerging economies are expected to see the fastest pace of expansion.
"Ireland punches well above its weight in agricultural trade, with a broad-based sector that includes global players in food sales alongside smaller producers. Rapidly expanding middle classes in countries like China offer strong export potential. Our climate and traditional role as a food producer has enabled us to develop a globally significant agricultural sector, including being the largest beef exporter in Europe. With the EU's milk quota regime ending at the end of March 2015, this will present the dairy sector with a unique opportunity to boost production capacity and increase exports," said HSBC Ireland chief executiveAlan Duffy.
The HSBC Trade Confidence Index is conducted by TNS on behalf of HSBC in a total of 23 markets. The current survey comprises six-month views of 5,800 exporters, importers and traders from small and mid-market enterprises on: trade volumes, risk to suppliers, need and access to trade finance, impact of exchange rates and regulation.
