1. What is it? Last year we had a spring economic statement as the previous government tried to build up the excitement ahead of its last Budget ( that worked well). Each year the Government has to submit revised economic forecasts in April to the EU Commission, as part of the annual calendar of these things. The idea of the Spring statement was to accompany this with a more political document, looking at what might be ahead for tax and spending. This year, the data and updated forecasts were submitted to Brussels on time in April. But because government formation took so long, Spring became Summer before the new administration had its feet under the table and the statement could be published.
2. Why now? It is a bit of an odd time, just before the Brexit vote. But next week the Government has scheduled two days of what is called the National Economic Dialogue (NED). This is when various interest groups and lobbies try to hustle the Government to give them money - sorry, engage in a constructive dialogue with about what they want any spare Budget money to be spent on. And the statement had to be out before this dialogue took place.
3. You're not going to mention the fiscal space. are you? Only seeing as you ask. Better really to refer to it as the money available to increase spending and cut taxes in the Budget. The April estimate was that this scope would amount to €900 million. This may go up a small bit in today's figures, but not a lot. It will allow some things to be done, but a lot will have to wait.
4. And if Brexit happens? All bets are off. Growth forecasts may have to be cut and this would hit tax revenues. In truth no one knows for sure what Brexit would mean, but most forecasters say it would hit growth.
5. Will we get any decent hints about the Budget ? Yes. A few, but the Government may keep its cards reasonably close to its chest. We may well see a hint towards further USC cuts - though with the gains clawed back from higher earners through tax allowance changes - to promised cuts in inheritance tax and to measures to help entrepreneurs. With two thirds of spare resources to go on higher spending, most of the focus will be here, and on what is said about health, education, investment and so on. There may also be hints of where extra revenue might be raised. Remember, for example, the Government is committed to a sugar tax. But with the Government in the middle of a row about waster charges, it is likely to be cautious about flagging further impositions.
