Almost a decade after the world economy was hit by financial crisis, the global recovery has finally become "broad-based and stable", according to a tracking index by the Brookings Institution and the Financial Times.
The findings, released ahead of this week's annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, will reinforce optimism that most economies around the world are showing signs of a consistent, but far from stellar, recovery. But fears remain that political uncertainty could yet throw countries off course.
The Brookings-FT Tiger index – tracking indices for the global economy – suggests growth has picked up sharply in both advanced economies and emerging markets in recent months. The index, which covers all major advanced and developing economies, compares many separate indicators of real activity, financial markets and investor confidence with their historical averages for the global economy and for each country separately.
Emerging-market growth
The Tiger index suggests growth in emerging markets has picked up sharply since the oil price fall hit output in 2015. Having languished well below historic average levels this time last year, the index for emerging-market growth has climbed to a level not seen since early 2013.
With the leadership of China’s Communist party due to undergo a five-yearly reshuffle later this year, the government is likely to try to keep tight control over the economy and financial markets and avoid major reforms.
Indicators of growth in advanced economies have also moved above historic average levels. The index of confidence is at its highest level since the global financial crisis. The growth and confidence indices for the US have picked up particularly sharply during the past year.
The results of the index may be reflected in IMF forecasts for the global economy on Tuesday. Christine Lagarde, the fund's managing director, told an audience in Brussels last week that "after six years of disappointing growth, the world economy is gaining momentum".
