The European Central Bank is likely to implement full-blown quantitative easing in the first half of next year in a bid to revive the flagging euro zone economy, according to one global markets analyst.
The bank's president, Mario Draghi, is already proposing a €1 trillion stimulus programme, but Henk Potts, head of global strategy with British bank Barclays, said two "triggers" could prompt more radical action in 2015.
The first is that the ECB’s balance sheet fails to reach the target set by Mr Draghi and its board, and the second is if inflation, currently estimated to reach 1.4 per cent by 2016, remains very low.
Mr Potts, who was in Dublin for a conference with Barclays’ clients, believes the proposed stimulus will not have the desired impact on either the bank’s balance sheet or inflation. “We think that the ECB will implement a full quantitative easing programme in the next half.”
He argued that there was a danger of a deflation spiral in the euro zone which would set back hopes of economic growth and make the region’s debt burden even more difficult to deal with. As a result the ECB would have to act.
Oil price
Barclays also believes the current low oil prices are likely to last for some time on the back of increases in supply and changes in consumption patterns, particularly in
China
, where demand for the commodity in recent years helped keep prices high.
Brent crude slipped below $70 a barrel last week. Mr Potts said the bank’s prediction for next year is for an average of $93, around 20 per cent off the highs that prices reached in June.
