Ireland's labour market will ease but demand for workers will remain high up to 2005, according to a new report. Provided there was no global economic shock, it said filling vacancies would be more crucial for Government than the creation of jobs to counter unemployment.
The report by the Economic & Social Research Institute and the State training and jobs authority, FAS, was published yesterday.
The "Armageddon scenario" of large-scale job losses would arise only in the case of a catastrophic downturn in the world economy, said one of its co-authors, Prof Jerry Sexton of the ESRI.
The labour force was expected to grow by 328,000 in the 19972005 period, the report said. About 151,500 people would come from outside the EU. "The message that comes out of this really is that if we want to achieve that stock level [of labour] in 2005, it should be achievable," said Prof Sexton.
FAS's research and planning manager, Mr Roger Fox, said the targets cited in the report could be met. "Broadly speaking we're looking at a tight balance," he said.
Evidence suggested that initiatives to attract workers to the State were working, Mr Fox added. These included the State's work permit programme and the Jobs Ireland project in which FAS hosted work fairs abroad for private sector companies with vacancies in the Republic.
In line with the ESRI's latest medium-term review, published in October 1999, the report assumes job creation will moderate significantly in the years to 2005 after speedy growth in the late 1990s and 2000.
The authors expect labour force inflows of 621,000 in the 1997-2005 period. Some 293,000 positions would be created as workers quit jobs or were replaced, leaving net labour force growth of 328,000. Separate figures - using a different methodology - suggested there would be 403,200 "job openings" in the period, but another co-author, Prof Gerry Hughes of the ESRI, said the labour force inflow data were the most meaningful.
The report said the greatest demand would be for professional workers - with degree-level qualifications - and associate professionals - diploma-holders. Almost 155,000 such workers would be required. Demand for clerical, sales and personal service staff was also strong.
It projected a surplus of semiskilled operatives. However, Mr Fox said FAS believed people who chose to seek work in areas with less growth - such as agriculture - would still find positions.
On immigration, Prof Sexton said: "We don't require a huge influx of low-skilled workers from abroad." The greatest demand for new workers was in the professional categories and skilled manual and craft sectors.
On training requirements, Prof Hughes said the professional worker category would need the most.
