Business Opinion: Sixteen days... and counting. The long-awaited reshuffle of Cabinet ministers will be announced on September 29th.

The political world is already a frenzy of speculation, but the shape of the reshuffle will also be a key issue for business and the economy.

It will be the first real hint of whether Government policy is due for a fundamental redirection, or whether the departure of Charlie McCreevy to Brussels merely means a softer edge to the selling of the Government's economic message.

Will Father Seán Healy's doctrine really be embraced, or does McCreevy's parting shot at him over the weekend reflect the general view in Cabinet of the higher-tax/higher-spending school of thought?

You wouldn't want to look too closely for guidance to the statements from the Taoiseach and senior ministers at the Inchydoney think-in or afterwards.

The Government is not going to lose control of public spending... but it is going to address the needs of the disadvantaged. Low tax policy will remain... but promises of extra gardaí will be met, more hospital beds will open and run-down schools will be rebuilt. The Programme for Government will be adhered to... but sure wouldn't it be strange if it wasn't changed a bit as we go along.

Does the departure of McCreevy presage a change of direction and who will get his job? The second part of the question appears easier to answer.

Brian Cowen has been the favourite from day one. There have been some recent reports that the Taoiseach could look elsewhere for a new finance minister - Dermot Ahern's name has been mentioned.

But sources believe firmly that Cowen has been lined up for the job. With a reputation as a tough operator and with considerable political clout, he should - if he chooses - be able to face down those who want to opt for a more rapid rise in public spending.

And he has indicated in recent weeks that the Government should not abandon the broad economic formula of the past couple of years.

A different appointment would raise big questions about where policy is going.

The more difficult question is whether Fianna Fáil ministers have already quietly resolved themselves to a change of direction. Inchydomics seems to consist of being more popular (witness the abandonment of the carbon tax) and spreading a bit more money around.

There is a commitment in Sustaining Progress, the national agreement, to hold spending growth to the level at which the economy grows in nominal terms. This would allow for an increase of about 8 per cent next year.

Given the additional cost of maintaining existing programmes and public pay rises already agreed, this would leave little enough room for additional spending on new areas.

But ever since the day that Charlie Haughey said that current spending would never again increase as a percentage of GNP, governments have found ways around - or often straight through - commitments to hold down spending.

Did the coalition learn from the profligate spending spree before the last election? Boasts about billions spent on health mean nothing to the public when an elderly relative remains stuck on a hospital trolley.

The shape of the rest of the Cabinet will give a clue about whether the Government is serious about the value-for-money agenda.

Will Minister Martin be left in place to progress his health reform programme? If he is replaced, will it be by someone with a mandate to deliver on the programme, or merely a short-term plan to preside over a few ward openings?

Where will Mary Harney go and will it be an area where she can renew the kind of radical reforming drive missing from the current Government?

Sending the Tánaiste to transport, for example, would send a message of change in this key area, where Minister Brennan's results have not matched his press statements.

Or will the Taoiseach want a Fianna Fáil minister to preside over the string of road openings and new announcements that will fall to the transport minister in the run up to the next election?

With tough decisions ahead about Aer Lingus, Aer Rianta and the Metro, business will want to see a clear and decisive minister in this area. Of all the issues facing industry, the transport shortfall is one of the most urgent.

Enterprise, Trade and Employment remains an important portfolio, though not as central as in the past. The days of driving industrial development through grants and tax breaks is largely over.

The new minister in this area needs a commitment to - and ideally knowledge of - the research agenda and of the complexities of developing a highly skilled industrial and services base.

He - or she - must also act as a champion for business in pushing other departments in areas such as broadband provision, infrastructure and energy.

And speaking of energy, the mess that has been made of the introduction of competition and regulation in this sector means it is vital that the new minister has a mandate to take a fundamental look at the entire structure. For too long energy has been an after-thought strung on to a variety of portfolios.

There is one other agenda that the new Cabinet needs to pursue: promoting competition. Last week's inflation figures tell the story - prices falling or static in the highly competitive retail sector, but rising way ahead of the average across much of the services sector.

There has been progress made in insurance reform, but many other areas remain to be tackled, with a string of Competition Authority reports due in the months ahead on areas such as the professions and banking.

The Government needs the courage to take on vested interests to make progress in these important areas. The risk is that because the relevant policy issues cover a range of ministries and because the Government is moving into pre-election popularity mode, it won't be prepared to act.

Pursuing the competition agenda and focusing on cost-effective ways to deliver better services to the public would give the Government a real economic direction.

But with the Exchequer coffers healthy, the risk is that it will take the easier route of trying to buy votes.