Is the milk price rout finally coming to an end? The main global bellwethers are sending out mixed signals.

According to data from the Milk Market Observatory, milk prices across the EU rose in September for the first time in 14 months. However, this was undercut by preliminary estimates for October which pointed to another fall.

The last two Global Dairy Trade auctions – which set the main reference price for products internationally – have also posted declines.

A sequence of four straight price rises in these auctions in August and September had been proffered as evidence the market was finally bottoming out. The post-quota era – billed as a great boon for Irish dairy farmers – has turned sour.

Constraints on demand from larger dairy buyers linked to a slowdown in China and an import ban in Russia have catapulted the sector into the worst slump in a decade.

According to the Irish Farmers’ Association, average milk prices here have fallen by 33 per cent to 28 cent per litre in the past 18 months.

The IFA claims this represents a whopping 93 per cent decline in margins for farmers.

Farmers have spent the last two years ramping up production ahead of the ending of milk quotas.

Encouraged by Government and China’s great white gold rush, they’ve expanded herd numbers and taken on more debt.

With agricultural commissioner Phil Hogan adamant there will no return to protectionism, the big question is how long the sector can soak up these price reversals.

The Irish Creamery Milk Suppliers' Association is predicting incomes swing of up to €40,000 between this year and last – enough, they say, to drive many out of business. This is proving a major a headache for Fine Gael, whose core constituency stretches perfectly across the Munster dairy belt.