The stand-out metric in the Government’s latest 10-year strategy for the agri-food sector is the 85 per cent increase in exports to €19 billion.
When you consider the industry increased in value by 45 per cent in the past six years amid a major global recession, the new Food Wise 2025 target is not such a remote proposition.
Much of the growth is predicated on adding value to basic commodities. Think of Glanbia turning whey, the once-discarded by-product of cheese-making, into a multi-million trade in body-building supplements.
However, there’s no escaping the fact that the 65 per cent jump in primary food production envisaged in the strategy is going to have a major impact on the environment. And this is where the plan gets a bit fuzzy.
Nowhere does it predict the projected increase in livestock that this level of growth would require, or the increase in carbon emissions that would result.
The report notes the “increased availability of high quality and safe raw material provides great potential for further developing the dairy processing industry and expanding its capabilities”. One expert described this as code for more cows.
Elsewhere, it says “it is equally important to try to ensure that suckler cow numbers are at least maintained at close to current levels. This requires improved profitability at farm level through maximising returns from penetration of premium markets.” But surely profitability relies more on global commodity prices, which is out of our hands?
The 168-page strategic environmental assessment published alongside the strategy suggests “the overall contribution of agricultural intensification to national air pollutant levels and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will have to be modelled in subsequent implementation plans”.
It concludes: “The greatest challenge to Agri-Food Strategy 2025 will undoubtedly be the question of GHG emissions, whether or not any substantial increase in the size of the national herd is proposed. Although a strong case can be made that Irish agriculture is the most carbon-efficient in the EU, the current regulatory framework seeks to limit agricultural GHG emissions.”
Essentially, there is no point in a major expansion in agriculture if the taxpayer ends up having to foot the bill for breaching emissions targets come 2020.
At the launch, Minister for Agriculture Simon Coveney pointed out that Ireland was trading abroad on its clean image and that caring for the environment should no longer be seen as a cost against competitiveness.
New Zealand, the world's largest dairy exporter, is often cited as what Ireland might have been if it had not been subjected to milk quotas.
However, the explosion in dairy there over the past three decades has come at a major environmental price, with soil, water and biodiversity resources deteriorating. This is a situation Ireland must not repeat.
