Report suggests 26% rise in homes under construction in Dublin

Data in latest 4Dublin Housing Supply Pipeline indicate supply remains relatively strong

Planning permission has been granted for 78,101 homes (64,594 or 82.7% of which are apartments). Photograph: Nick Bradshaw
Planning permission has been granted for 78,101 homes (64,594 or 82.7% of which are apartments). Photograph: Nick Bradshaw

The number of housing units under construction in Dublin rose by 26 per cent to 19,380 year on year in the third quarter of last year, according to the latest 4Dublin Housing Supply Pipeline report.

The report, which monitors planning and construction activity across the four local Dublin authorities, provides the most up-to-date snapshot of residential construction in the capital.

The pickup in homes under construction means that a lot of the commencement notices triggered last year as a result of developers rushing to avail of development levy waivers have proceeded to active construction contrary to initial indications.

Despite the increase, housing delivery nationally is still expected to stagnate over the next two to three years with the supply of new homes falling short of State targets principally because a slowdown in apartment building linked to higher borrowing costs.

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The report also showed that planning permission has been granted for a total of 78,101 new homes (64,594 or 82.7 per cent of which are apartments) on 468 development sites across the four local authorities.

This was down almost 7 per cent year on year.

Of these 78,101 permitted units, there is a cumulative total of 28,889 units in the development pipeline either under construction or built. Another 49,212 units have permission but are not yet commenced, which was down 15.6 per cent year on year.

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There are ongoing judicial reviews in connection with 14 schemes and 5,875 (11.9 per cent) of the units yet to be commenced units. That represents a 45.7 per cent decrease in the number of units under judicial review compared to the third quarter of 2023.

The report noted that the data indicated a general upward trajectory in the pipeline of planning permissions and construction activity over the past eight years.

Separately, the latest monthly construction industry purchasing managers index, compiled by AIB, pointed to a fall in total activity in the sector in Ireland in January with activity “hampered by stormy weather”.

The index recorded a reading of 48.2 in January, down from 51.6 in December and back below the 50 mark. Anything above 50 indicates expansion; a figure below it signifies contraction.

AIB noted that this was the fourth time in the last five minutes that activity in the sector had contracted.

“The poor weather conditions seen in January – particularly Storm Éowyn – contributed to the overall reduction in construction activity,” it said.

The subindex for housing bucked the wider trend and posted a rise in activity in January for a fifth consecutive month. However, there was a renewed fall in commercial activity and a sustained contraction in work on civil engineering projects.

AIB’s report also indicated that input costs increased sharply, with the rate of inflation “remaining marked”. However, more positively, employment continued to rise, extending the current sequence of job creation to five months.

AIB senior economist John Fahey said the report highlighted a “subdued backdrop” for building activity, although he acknowledged the adverse weather had played a part.

“From a sectoral perspective, for the fifth consecutive month, housing was the best performing of the three sub-sectors. Indeed, it managed to register a solid pace of expansion.

“In contrast, both commercial and civil engineering activity contracted, with the latter retaining its position as the weakest of the three,” said Mr Fahey.

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Eoin Burke-Kennedy

Eoin Burke-Kennedy

Eoin Burke-Kennedy is Economics Correspondent of The Irish Times