According to the Irish League of Credit Unions’ monthly barometer, consumer sentiment here has been hovering within a relatively narrow band for 12 months, a range that could be crudely interpreted as meaning two things.
First, there’s been no big change in the economic circumstances of households here over the past year (at least none on the scale seen in the previous two years). And also that consumers, while slightly more optimistic as cost-of-living pressures ease, remain cautious about the economic outlook. That caution probably accelerated with this month’s US election which placed Donald Trump and his protectionist agenda back in the White House.
We’ll get the latest reading on Wednesday when the November gauge is published, just two days before the country goes to polls.
Irish companies are already preparing for impact of Trump’s tariffs
What we can infer from that measure about the mood of the electorate is difficult to say. The interface between economic sentiment and political preference is not straightforward and certainly not when two of the big three parties have been working under the same banner for the past four years.
One thing that emerged in the US election and may yet play out here is the disjuncture between headline macro data like employment and growth, which was vaguely positive in the US in the lead-up to the vote but seemingly out of kilter with what ordinary voters were feeling.
[ Has Fingal County Council found a solution to Ireland’s housing crisis?Opens in new window ]
Ireland may be at full employment and the Government in a strong financial position but voters are continuing to highlight cost-of-living issues and a general dissatisfaction with the outlook for housing.
Austin Hughes, author of the league of credit unions’ report, says there is a central problem in economics with using average or median figures. “The idea that there is a ‘representative’ Irish consumer whose experience is mirrored across all households is not challenged enough,” he says.
Much of the economic data here are based on cumulative numbers which can exaggerate economic performance or run counter to the real feel of the economy.
- Sign up for Business push alerts and have the best news, analysis and comment delivered directly to your phone
- Find The Irish Times on WhatsApp and stay up to date
- Our Inside Business podcast is published weekly - Find the latest episode here
