Dublin Airport operator DAA has said record-breaking travel demand will see passenger numbers exceed its annual 32 million passenger cap this year, while it warned that efforts to suppress numbers in 2025 will have an impact “beyond aviation”, costing thousands of tourism jobs.
DAA said it has made “extensive efforts” to keep passenger traffic within planning parameters set by An Bord Pleanála in 2007. But the final figure is likely to be closer to 33 million passengers after August proved to be the busiest month ever in its 84-year history.
Some 22.7 million people travelled through the airport in the first eight months of 2024, with some 3.46 million of them in August.
The State-owned company’s chief executive Kenny Jacobs said the uncertainty created by the cap was “not the best look for Ireland” and would likely affect foreign direct investment (FDI) amid the expected loss of slots and routes.
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The cap is also on track to trigger higher fares in 2025 as about one million seats are taken out of the airport next summer, although Mr Jacobs said he did not expect an impact on fares this winter, as previously warned by Ryanair.
DAA applied to Fingal County Council in December 2023 to increase the cap to 40 million as part of a wider infrastructure plan, with the authority requesting further information in February. It is now also preparing to lodge an interim application that only seeks to increase the passenger cap, in the hope that this will hasten its lifting.
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“This is an Ireland issue,” said Mr Jacobs, as he called for more “joined-up thinking” on infrastructure and said the airport was “caught between a rock and a hard place” as it waited for a decision.
“We have demonstrated that Dublin Airport can take 40 million comfortably. We estimate that there will be demand for 37 million next year, but we are going to be pegged back to 32 million,” he said.
“It is in no one’s interests to curtail tourism and investment at a time when so much public and private money is being spent to do the complete opposite.”
In response to DAA’s statement, Fingal County Council said a planning enforcement investigation was taking place into complaints that the cap was breached. DAA’s confirmation that it expected to breach the limit in 2024 will “feed into the ongoing planning enforcement process”, it said.
But it is unclear if there will be any consequences. Mr Jacobs said he was confident that the airport operator could show it had done everything within its power to dampen demand, saying that without its actions Dublin would be on course to exceed the cap by closer to two million passengers in 2024.
It said it was hampered by the fact it does not control the slot process, which is handled by the Irish Aviation Authority (IAA). A “dampening” of demand is expected from late autumn as the IAA’s winter slot seat capacity limit kicks in.
DAA has launched a scheme to encourage airlines to move seat capacity from Dublin to Cork Airport, which it also operates, and this offer has been taken up by Emerald Airlines.
“Cork Airport is now the fastest growing airport in the country, and we will be cracking on with it,” said Mr Jacobs.
Ryanair, Aer Lingus and other established airlines are expected to get the slots they want in Dublin next year, he said, but some US airlines newer to Dublin Airport could lose up to 5-7 per cent of their slots and possibly take legal action as a result.
“I think the cap at Dublin Airport could end up in a European court in the next six months,” he said.
Meanwhile, business group Ibec described the cap as “arbitrary” and said it must be lifted to reflect population growth and international connectivity demands.
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