The pressure is coming on the Government to get involved in the standoff over the cap on passenger numbers at Dublin Airport, with Ryanair chief executive Michael O’Leary warning once again of a sharp rise in air fares over the Christmas period.
The maximum number of passengers that are allowed through the airport each year is capped at 32 million, under a 2008 planning decision. An application from the Dublin Airport Authority (DAA) to lift the cap to 40 million is being considered by Fingal Country Council and the Government has been inclined to steer clear of this particular political minefield deeming it a local planning matter when it is clearly one of strategic importance at a national level.
A decision is not expected anytime soon and the DAA has yet to submit additional information requested by the council. It is also planning to submit an interim application to lift the cap to 36 million.
Currently today in late August our lowest fares from London to Dublin on Friday, December 20th, Saturday, December 21st, or Sunday, December 22nd, are rapidly approaching €100 one way due to this Government’s failure to allow airlines to run extra flights to/from Dublin this Christmas
— Michael O'Leary
On Monday morning O’Leary reiterated a warning he gave in June that capacity constraints will start to be felt in earnest at Christmas, a peak time for the airport as people come and go over the festive period.
“Currently today in late August our lowest fares from London to Dublin on Friday, December 20th, Saturday, December 21st, or Sunday, December 22nd, are rapidly approaching €100 one way due to this Government’s failure to allow airlines to run extra flights to/from Dublin this Christmas,” said O’Leary.
The important words here are “rapidly approaching”. A perusal of Ryanair’s website on Monday lunchtime showed that flights from Stansted to Dublin on the dates mentioned by O’Leary ranged from about €60 to €95. That of course is before you pay for a bag and all the other extras but whether it amounts to rapidly approaching €100 is debatable. Why this is a problem for Ryanair is hard to fathom but we take O’Leary’s concern at face value.
It’s worth noting in this regard that the carrier has said it plans to add another 50,000 seats on its route from Stanstead to Belfast International where Ryanair flights from London are between €35 and €60 over the pre-Christmas peak
For aficionados of the Ryanair boss, this is just another example of him doing what he has done so well over the past two decades: presenting a mixture of facts and opinion in a way that is in the best interests of his business and shareholders.
The trouble is that this doesn’t necessarily amount to a solid basis for policymaking.
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O’Leary has got a lot of things right during his tenure at the airline during which it has grown into one of the biggest short-haul operators. In truth, he has got substantially more things right than wrong. But we were reminded earlier this year that even O’Leary can be wrong.
In February, he predicted confidently that airline fares would be significantly higher this summer due to several factors including a shortage of available aircraft across the industry. He predicted Ryanair prices would be up 10 per cent.
In May, O’Leary revealed that ticket prices were not increasing as fast as had been expected, which he deemed “surprising”.
He explained to Forbes magazine “and we’re not quite sure whether that’s just consumer sentiment or recessionary feel around Europe”.
Admitting his mistake was not without consequences, Ryanair shares fell 7.7 per cent.
The same advice goes for the equally apocalyptic predictions about the impact of the cap made by DAA head Kenny Jacobs who it must be remembered was chief marketing officer at Ryanair for seven years and learned at the feet of the master of media manipulation
It is a timely reminder that O’Leary is not infallible and that the Government should not let itself be bounced into intervening in the process simply because of his predictions that flights over the Christmas holidays could hit €500.
It’s worth noting in this regard that the carrier has said it plans to add another 50,000 seats on its route from Stansted to Belfast International where Ryanair flights from London are between €35 and €60 over the pre-Christmas peak. If prices for London to Dublin flights reach the levels O’Leary predicts, these flights will be attractive to anyone in the northeast and Border counties.
The same advice goes for the equally apocalyptic predictions about the impact of the cap made by DAA head Kenny Jacobs, who it must be remembered was chief marketing officer at Ryanair for seven years and learned at the feet of the master of media manipulation.
It is possible that O’Leary and Jacobs could be correct. Likewise, it may well be in the wider national interests to increase the cap and override the concerns of residents and environmental objectors
Jacobs told the Business Post that the 32 million passenger cap will cost the Irish economy half a billion euro in tourist revenue in 2025 plus 1,000 jobs in aviation. It’s quite a statement based on a back-of-the-envelope calculation to the effect that about 300,000 of these would be tourists who on average spend €1,750.
It is possible that O’Leary and Jacobs could be correct. Likewise, it may well be in the wider national interests to increase the cap and override the concerns of residents and environmental objectors.
But these are the sort of decisions that need to be based on robust analysis of facts and not in response to well-articulated apocalyptic predictions of interested parties.
