Post-election violence in Johannesburg's township of Alexandra and the government's more aggressive response in deploying troops against demonstrators suggest that South Africa's general election has done little to purge the deep malaise at the heart of this troubled society. What is being sold by the African National Congress (ANC) as a vote of confidence – 62.2 per cent of the vote, down 3.7 percentage points from 2009 – will see Jacob Zuma easily re-elected as president but falls short of the two thirds majority it needs in parliament to amend the constitution.
Crucially, the ANC vote by itself does not reflect the considerable advance, qualitatively and quantitatively, of opposition, liberal Democratic Alliance ( 22.2 per cent, up from 16.6 per cent) which took 1.1 million new votes, 700,000 from black voters. In doing so, party leader Helen Zille insists, its support among black voters grew to about 6 per cent, from less than 1 per cent five years ago doing much to decisively shake off its reputation as a white party.
On the hard left, former chairman of the ANC Youth League Julius Malema, succesfully attracted over 1 million votes to his Economic Freedom Fighters, to come in third on 6.3 per cent. His demand for the nationalisation of the mines and other economic assets without compensation has the potential to grow fast. The traditional allegiance of the trade union movement to the ANC is growing very tenuous – the National Union of Metalworkers of South Africa has already split off – as Zuma promises a more business-friendly agenda that is certain to provoke confrontation. "This mandate gives us the green light," he said after the result. The price may well be a new labour-based party and a further significant erosion of the ANC base.
The party has leaned heavily again on the political authority and capital accumulated in the years of liberation and of Nelson Mandela. Yet its increasing association with corruption and cronyism and failure to tackle poverty has allowed the consolidation of new poles of opposition of forces whose time may yet be coming.