European governments have been warned against leaving critical infrastructure and other “soft targets” exposed and to be on guard for terrorists or extremists taking advantage of the war in Iran to cross into Europe.
EU justice ministers were advised the escalating war in the Middle East could trigger a fresh migration “crisis”, with large numbers of displaced people expected to flee the conflict for Europe.
In a March 25th letter, seen by The Irish Times, EU migration commissioner Magnus Brunner asked governments to be on alert, given security assessments of the heightened terror threat facing Europe in the fallout of the US-Israel war in Iran.
Governments were advised to take additional precautions to make sure “terrorists and extremists do not cross into the EU hidden in migratory flows”.
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Officials in EU institutions and national capitals are on edge about the prospects of the escalating war triggering a huge movement of asylum seekers to European countries, similar to 2015, when one million people fled to Europe and put significant pressure on governments managing their arrivals.
The European Commission, which has come to play a greater role co-ordinating a recent push to toughen up the bloc’s borders, has been watching for the beginning of any spike in the number of refugees travelling towards Europe.
In recent correspondence to Minister for Justice Jim O’Callaghan and other EU justice and interior ministers, Brunner said there had been “no increased migratory flows” arising out of the war in Iran and Lebanon.
Brunner warned ministers the picture “may evolve rapidly”, given a million people had been displaced from their homes in Lebanon and knock-on effects from the conflict were being felt in Syria and Afghanistan.
There is a concern a large surge in the number of asylum seekers making the journey to Europe might be exploited by hostile extremists.
Reinforced border security and checks would “ensure that terrorists and extremists do not cross into the EU hidden in migratory flows”, Brunner wrote.
“The resilience of our critical infrastructure should be prioritised to avoid leaving soft targets exposed in our energy, transport, or financial infrastructure or in other critical sectors,” he added.
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It is understood there has been no jump in the number of people applying for international protection in Ireland. However, any increase in asylum seekers travelling to the State from the Middle East would probably only be felt some weeks or months down the line.
The Italian and Danish governments, both hardliners on migration, have been making the case for contingency measures to be readied by Brussels. These would kick in quickly if the war led to a huge spike in migrants and refugees fleeing to Europe.
Governments should share information on individuals considered possible security threats, to track any flagged instances of “returning foreign terrorist fighters”, Brunner wrote.
The EU law enforcement agency Europol last month upgraded its assessment of the terror threat facing Europe, warning the Iran war meant there was a heightened risk of lone wolf attacks by radicalised extremists.
