‘They have chosen not to accept our terms,” US vice-president JD Vance told journalists at the end of the much-heralded Iran-US Islamabad talks. The 21-hour discussions, hardly the “marathon” trumpeted by media outlets, appear, however, to have been not so much preliminary negotiations but an exchange of ultimatums by both sides.
Donald Trump expressed a disappointing nonchalance at the outcome. “We win, regardless,” he boasted. “We’ve defeated them militarily.” Winding up the pressure, he announced his own counterproductive blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Instead of de-escalation there was escalation, added pressure on oil prices, and a promise of retaliation from Iran against the Gulf states.
The war continues with the Iranian regime intact, 1,700 civilians dead in Iran (250 of them children) and 2,020 fatalities in Lebanon, including over 360 since the “ceasefire”. In the Gulf states 32 have been killed, and 20 more in Israel.
That the meeting, the first between the two governments since 1979, even took place was important. Despite the bluster, both sides were willing to ignore preconditions, including the ending of Israel’s assault on Lebanon and the unsealing of the Strait of Hormuz.
RM Block
Reports suggest that the causes of the impasse remain. The US insists on joint control and unblocking of the strait. It demands that Iran forego all nuclear enrichment and surrender highly enriched material. Iran demands the ending of sanctions, the return of $27 billion in frozen Iranian assets and US guarantees it will not resume attacks.
Most of these demands are within reach and reflect some aspects of a pre-war status quo ante. The strait’s reopening is possible if Israel ends attacks on Lebanon – part of the ceasefire deal which Iran “misunderstood”, according to Vance. But in the long term, Iran’s right to charge tolls on ships is not a runner. Nor is joint control of the strait.
Iran has already promised to commit to purely peaceful nuclear enrichment. It refuses to surrender bomb-grade uranium but is willing to see it verifiably disabled. The last major agreement between Tehran and Washington, two years in negotiation, allowed Iran to retain a small nuclear stockpile.
The end of sanctions and the return of frozen assets will certainly be part of any eventual deal. But compensation by the US for war damage is politically impossible.
With the truce set to expire next Tuesday, the two sides are weighing up new proposals. A return to hostilities remains possible but would be unpredictable, irrational and politically risky for Trump with increasingly angry American voters. Islamabad still offers a glimmer of hope.
