Ireland is likely to breach its annual obligation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from 2017 onwards despite the fall-off in emissions associated with the economic downturn.
Under the European Union’s climate change targets, Ireland is legally bound to deliver a 20 per cent reduction in its carbon footprint by 2020.
According to the latest set of projections by Environmental Projection Agency (EPA), however, the country will exceed its carbon reduction requirements from 2017 onwards even in the best-case scenario which takes account of existing and planned policy initiatives.
The EPA projections suggest Ireland will breach its target by between 4.1 and 7.8 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions in 2020. However, this was less than the 4.1-8.8 million tonnes projected in April 2011.
The projections also indicated that Ireland will exceed its obligations over the period 2013-2020 by between 2.0 and 21.0 million tonnes of CO2 emissions.
The EU targets oblige Ireland to make the cuts in non-Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) greenhouse gases from agriculture, transport, residential and waste activities.
Only the main industrial activities are covered under the ETS.
Ireland will, however, comply with its Kyoto 2008-2012 obligations which commit the State to limiting its emissions at 13 per cent above 1990 levels by 2012.
The EPA said the State would comfortably achieve the targets "without any further purchase of credits" under the ETS.
The agency’s projections suggested a total “distance to target” for the Kyoto Protocol period of between 4.1 and 5.1 million tonnes of CO2 emissions, significantly less than 6.3 to 8.1 million tonnes projected this time last year.
The reduction was primarily attributable to a reduction in transport emissions over the 2008-2012 period.
The EPA’s director general, Laura Burke, said: "The projections show a reduction in Ireland’s distance to target under the Kyoto Protocol and the EU 2020 targets."
"This reflects a combination of the effects of the economic recession as well as assumptions on the full implementation of relevant Government policies," she said.
However, Ms Burke warned that failure to deliver on the measures outlined in Government policies would result in higher emissions than predicted.
"Ireland cannot rely on recession to meet our long term carbon reduction requirements and needs to develop as a low carbon economy," she said.
"In order to ensure that our future economic growth is sustainable it must be more resource-efficient and decoupled from increases in emissions."
The Government is obliged to submit emission targets to the EU annually.
While the projections are "inherently uncertain" because of the changing economic and technological environment, they provide a snapshot of the country’s ability to meet EU and international targets with respect to greenhouse gas emissions.
